China Surprised by US AUKUS Launch, Retaliates with CPTPP Membership Application... Will US Return Accelerate? (Comprehensive)

Led by Quad countries including Japan and Australia... China likely to oppose membership
US may move after no return efforts yet... South Korea and others also deliberating

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As China responds to the launch of the U.S.-led AUKUS alliance by applying for membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), attention is focused on how this will affect regional countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia. While existing members Japan and Australia are expected to oppose China's CPTPP membership, there are forecasts that public opinion in the U.S. will increasingly favor rejoining. South Korea, currently reviewing its membership, is also expected to accelerate discussions.

◆Japan and Australia, Leading the CPTPP, Likely to Oppose

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

China's application appears to be a response to pressure from the United States. On the 17th, China's state-run Global Times reported that the Ministry of Commerce announced China's CPTPP membership application around midnight, stating that it was "to pressure the United States, which has not yet joined the CPTPP."

Song Wei, a researcher at the China Institute for International Trade and Economic Cooperation, emphasized in an interview with Global Times that "this application shows China's open and optimistic stance on world trade amid the spread of protectionism," and added, "The United States is increasingly distancing itself from traditional trading partners including Japan and South Korea."

China's CPTPP application is said to have been made very urgently. According to the Associated Press, the application was submitted to New Zealand's Ministry of Trade just hours after the announcement of the U.S.-led AUKUS alliance. Although Chinese President Xi Jinping mentioned at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit last November that China would "actively consider joining the CPTPP," the application had been prepared but withheld until now, as it was judged unlikely that existing members would accept it.

The CPTPP currently includes 11 member countries: Japan (the current chair), Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Canada, Peru, Chile, and Mexico. The United Kingdom and Thailand have also been undergoing membership application procedures since June. Given that major Quad members Japan and Australia, as well as the U.K., a leader of AUKUS, are expected to join soon, the possibility of accepting China's application is considered very low.

◆"China's Aim is to Break International Isolation"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Experts explain that since China faces many issues to resolve before actual CPTPP membership?such as illegal subsidies to private companies and technology theft in countries like the U.S.?this move is interpreted more as a strategic step to break international isolation rather than a genuine intention to join immediately.

Professor Jeong In-gyo of Inha University's Department of International Trade said, "Chinese private companies have been operating almost like public enterprises, receiving illegal subsidies and leading technology theft in other countries, among many other problems. If these issues could have been resolved, China would have addressed trade frictions with the U.S. rather than applying for CPTPP membership." He added, "This application should be interpreted as a strategic move and a card to break international isolation."

◆Will the U.S. Push for Rejoining? South Korea Also Contemplating

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, the application itself is attracting attention as it could prompt the U.S. to act. The U.S. led the original Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the predecessor of the CPTPP, but has shown little sign of rejoining so far. After voluntarily withdrawing from the TPP under the Trump administration in 2017, the Biden administration considered rejoining last year but has yet to take active steps.

During the U.S.-Japan summit in April between President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Japan requested once again that the U.S. rejoin the CPTPP, but the U.S. declined. According to CNN, the Biden administration is still reviewing the benefits of rejoining the CPTPP while focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic and domestic economic recovery.

With China's application expected to prompt Japan and Australia to more strongly urge the U.S. to rejoin, the possibility of other regional countries like South Korea joining is also being raised. Earlier in March, Wendy Cutler, former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, participated in a CPTPP trade forum hosted by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry and encouraged active participation, saying, "South Korea should consider joining the CPTPP regardless of the U.S. rejoining." South Korea has been discussing membership since President Moon Jae-in announced in his New Year's address this January that the country would actively consider joining, although some government departments are reportedly expressing opposition.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.