Reactivation of North Korea's Yongbyon Reactor After Two and a Half Years, Is the Nuclear Card Being Played Again?

[Asia Economy Reporters Inho Yoo and Jieun Lee] North Korea's decision to restart the Yongbyon reactor after two and a half years is interpreted as an attempt to demonstrate its nuclear weapons production capability and resolve to the United States. Attention is focused on whether Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, will once again present the nuclear disarmament card and engage in dialogue or carry out a military provocation.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Since the South Korean and U.S. governments had prior knowledge of North Korea’s restart of the Yongbyon plutonium reactor and have been conducting close consultations, there are also prospects that the two countries will further strengthen their cooperation mode on North Korea policy.

◇ Background of the plutonium reactor restart = The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that North Korea has continuously operated the radiochemical laboratory (reprocessing facility) at the Yongbyon reactor from mid-February to early July this year, indicating that the plutonium reactor has been restarted.

This five-month period corresponds to the time North Korea has previously stated it takes to reprocess all spent fuel rods removed from the 5 MW reactor to extract plutonium.

In fact, in April 2016, after the operation of the Yongbyon reactor’s radiochemical laboratory was detected, North Korea conducted its 5th nuclear test five months later. This is why there is a strong possibility that North Korea is extracting plutonium.

The 5 MW reactor in Yongbyon, North Pyongan Province, has been a key nuclear facility in North Korea since it began full operation in 1986. Spent fuel rods removed from the reactor are reprocessed in the radiochemical laboratory to extract plutonium, the raw material for nuclear weapons. The 5 MW reactor and the radiochemical laboratory are central to plutonium production for nuclear weapons within the Yongbyon nuclear complex.

Experts believe that North Korea’s restart of the Yongbyon 5 MW reactor indicates either that it has begun expanding its nuclear weapons stockpile by producing plutonium or that it intends to showcase this capability to external parties such as the United States.

North Korea had promised to disable the 5 MW reactor under the 2007 Six-Party Talks agreement and demolished the reactor cooling tower in 2008.

Subsequently, amid conflicts with the U.S. over nuclear facility declarations and inspections, North Korea declared a halt to the disablement process and alternated between operation and suspension until 2018. It ceased operation from December 2018 following the Singapore North Korea-U.S. summit.

◇ Clear violation of resolutions... Will the U.S. strengthen sanctions? = Some speculate that General Secretary Kim may be presenting the reactor restart as a card for North Korea-U.S. negotiations.

At the Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit in February 2019, Kim proposed that if the U.S. lifted some sanctions, all nuclear material production facilities in the Yongbyon area would be permanently dismantled under the supervision of U.S. experts, but the talks collapsed.

Shim Bum-chul, Director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, said, "This is evidence that North Korea has steadily enhanced its nuclear capabilities since the Hanoi summit collapse and shows its intention to continue advancing its nuclear capabilities. Although the Biden administration said it would implement the Singapore agreement, nothing has been realized, so this can be interpreted as pressure to 'stop just talking and show concrete actions.'"

However, since the South Korean and U.S. governments have continuously monitored signs of the restart and maintained close consultations, some analyses suggest there will be no major changes in inter-Korean or North Korea-U.S. relations.

The fact that the two governments’ responses after the IAEA report release remain unchanged, stating "North Korea’s nuclear missile activities are being continuously monitored under close South Korea-U.S. cooperation," also supports this view.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Graduate School for North Korean Studies said, "North Korea is unlikely to respond as sensitively as before or issue strongly worded statements. If North Korea does not engage in military provocations, there will likely be no significant changes in the current situation on the Korean Peninsula."

Shim Bum-chul also said, "Although the United Nations has raised the issue and international public opinion has been stirred, this sign of restart will not lead to new sanctions. It is not a new variable that will shake the situation on the Korean Peninsula."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.