What Did Lee Nak-yeon Gain from Fighting Lee Jae-myung?

Did Lee Nak-yeon's Approval Rating Also Rise While Attacking Lee Jae-myung, Who Is Ranked No. 1?
Where and From Whom Did Lee Nak-yeon's Approval Rating Increase in June and July?

Reporter Dongju Yoon doso7@

The battle between the top two ruling party presidential candidates, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung and former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon, is intense. The challenger, former leader Lee, appears to be more aggressive. Moreover, since early last month, former leader Lee's approval ratings have surged, gaining momentum. This timing coincides with the escalation of conflicts with Governor Lee. It would be reasonable to think, "Lee Nak-yeon's ratings are rising because he's attacking Lee Jae-myung." However, this raises a question: Did former leader Lee's increased approval ratings truly come from fighting Governor Lee? If so, he should continue to attack Governor Lee more fiercely. If not, a strategic revision might be necessary. Today, we analyze this aspect. (To avoid confusion in understanding the article, titles are omitted when referring to the two as Governor Lee and former leader Lee. We ask for your understanding.)

Basic data: Results from the last eight opinion polls commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-G Korea Consulting.

From the 17th opinion poll commissioned by this paper (second week of July), Lee Nak-yeon's approval ratings surged. At that time, it was reported that Lee Nak-yeon began to lead in a head-to-head contest against former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, which caused a big stir (within the margin of error). Since it was the first noticeable result, some baseless articles claimed bias in the polling agency, but it was later revealed that this phenomenon was not unique to this paper's survey. Around this time, the upward trend in Lee Nak-yeon's approval ratings was consistently observed in several polls. This paper's survey just happened to coincide with the 'starting point of the rise in approval ratings' in terms of timing.

From the 12th to the 16th polls, Lee Jae-myung maintained approval ratings in the mid-to-high 20% range, while Lee Nak-yeon was in the low 10% range, with Lee Jae-myung nearly doubling Lee Nak-yeon's support. However, in the 17th poll, the situation changed to '25.8% vs. 16.4%'. Lee Jae-myung's approval rating remained steady, but Lee Nak-yeon's surged. This trend continued in the 18th poll.

What is clear is that when Lee Nak-yeon's approval rating rose by 6.9 percentage points, Lee Jae-myung did not lose any support. Then, who exactly surrendered their support to Lee Nak-yeon? The changes in other candidates' approval ratings from the 16th to the 17th poll are as follows.

As shown in the table above, when Lee Nak-yeon's approval rating increased by 6.9 percentage points, no candidate experienced a drop of that magnitude. Only Yoon Seok-youl's rating fell significantly by 4 percentage points. Breaking down Lee Nak-yeon's 6.9 percentage point gain, it consists simply of Yoon Seok-youl 4.3%, Lee Jae-myung 0.8%, other Democratic Party candidates 0.4%, other opposition candidates 0.8%, and undecided voters 0.5%. In other words, over 60% of Lee Nak-yeon's approval rating increase can be explained by Yoon Seok-youl's decline. Of course, this is not a statistically strong analysis. It is merely an assumption that since one candidate's rating fell while another's rose during the same period, there is a connection. But given the data available, this is the extent of the analysis, so it should be taken as a reference.

This raises another question. Lee Nak-yeon and Yoon Seok-youl belong to opposing parties, so their support bases are unlikely to overlap significantly. How can the shift of Yoon Seok-youl's supporters to Lee Nak-yeon be explained? Lee Nak-yeon's camp cites several reasons for the rise in approval ratings from mid-June to early July, including the start of the Democratic Party's primary TV debates, which highlighted his characteristic 'serious and solemn' image. Also, his nationwide tour and increased interaction with supporters were effective. However, these explanations do not fully clarify the transfer of votes from Yoon Seok-youl to Lee Nak-yeon.

Next is a table showing which candidates 'People Power Party supporters' have supported.

People Power Party supporters began to withdraw significant support from Yoon Seok-youl starting with the 17th poll. Yoon declared his presidential candidacy on June 29 and began active political activities, during which various controversies arose. This period coincides with the rise in Lee Nak-yeon's approval ratings. Lee Nak-yeon was originally 'very' unpopular among People Power Party supporters. However, in the 17th poll, he absorbed a substantial portion of Yoon Seok-youl's lost support, rising from 1.5% in the 16th poll to 4.2%. Notably, the support lost by Yoon Seok-youl did not significantly go to Lee Jae-myung.

Conclusion 1 = Although the reason is unclear, part of Lee Nak-yeon's increased approval ratings is a reflection of Yoon Seok-youl's decline, i.e., a spillover benefit. A considerable number of People Power Party supporters who left Yoon Seok-youl shifted their support to Lee Nak-yeon.

However, this analysis alone cannot fully explain Lee Nak-yeon's rise. Yoon Seok-youl's support among People Power Party supporters dropped by 6.6 percentage points, but Lee Nak-yeon only rose by 2.7 percentage points. Next, we examine Lee Nak-yeon's approval rating changes by age group.

Lee Nak-yeon's approval ratings rose across all age groups in the 17th poll. However, the increase was particularly large among those in their 30s, and this trend continued in the 18th poll. This indicates that a significant part of Lee Nak-yeon's rise is due to the shift in the 30s age group's voting preferences. Then, who did the 30s support before switching to Lee Nak-yeon?

Until the 16th poll, the most popular candidate among those in their 30s was Lee Jae-myung, with a 29.2% approval rating. Even in the 17th poll, when Lee Nak-yeon's rating surged, Lee Jae-myung's rating remained unchanged at 29.0%. This means that 30s who supported Lee Jae-myung did not suddenly switch to Lee Nak-yeon. The second most popular candidate among the 30s was Yoon Seok-youl, with 28.1% in the 16th poll. In the 17th poll, this dropped sharply to 20.6%. It appears certain that 30s Yoon Seok-youl supporters moved to Lee Nak-yeon. The combined approval ratings for opposition candidates other than Yoon Seok-youl among 30s dropped from 18.9% in the 16th poll to 11.2% in the 17th poll. It is also clear that many 30s who supported opposition candidates other than Yoon Seok-youl shifted to Lee Nak-yeon. Conversely, the combined approval ratings for other Democratic Party candidates among 30s barely changed from 9.9% to 9.7%, and the undecided group increased from 3.4% to 5.8%, so they did not contribute to Lee Nak-yeon's rise.

Conclusion 2 = A significant part of Lee Nak-yeon's approval rating increase can be interpreted as a shift of 30s voters who previously supported opposition candidates.

Next is a regional analysis. Lee Nak-yeon's approval rating rose in all regions in the 17th poll. However, the increase was especially large in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongsangnam-do (Bu-Ul-Gyeong). In the 16th poll, only 6.1% of residents in this region supported Lee Nak-yeon, but this surged to 15.4% in the 17th poll. The Gangwon-Jeju region also saw a significant rise, though the sample size is small. In the Gwangju-Jeolla region, which is Lee Nak-yeon's base, support rose from 14.2% to 22.6%. Combining this with 'Conclusion 2,' it can be seen that the shift of 30s opposition supporters in Bu-Ul-Gyeong to Lee Nak-yeon contributed significantly to his approval rating increase. Of course, the rise in support in his regional base of Gwangju-Jeolla also helped.

To cross-verify, we examined which candidates Bu-Ul-Gyeong residents withdrew support from to back Lee Nak-yeon.

As clearly confirmed in the table above, Bu-Ul-Gyeong residents broadly withdrew support from opposition candidates around early July. Many of them shifted their support to Lee Nak-yeon, and Lee Jae-myung also gained some support. However, they did not move to other ruling party candidates. The withdrawal of opposition support in Bu-Ul-Gyeong was a common phenomenon not only for Yoon Seok-youl but also for other opposition candidates. The combined approval ratings for opposition candidates other than Yoon Seok-youl in Bu-Ul-Gyeong dropped from 24.0% in the 16th poll to 14.4% in the 17th poll. This trend continued in the 18th poll, with the combined opposition candidate rating falling to 14.3%. Meanwhile, Lee Nak-yeon's approval rating in the 18th poll rose to 25.2%. The combined approval ratings for all ruling party candidates in Bu-Ul-Gyeong increased from 34.1% in the 16th poll to 40.5% in the 17th poll and further to 50.5% in the 18th poll.

Conclusion 3 = A significant number of Bu-Ul-Gyeong residents switched their support from the opposition to the ruling party. The beneficiaries were Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung, in that order. Other ruling party candidates did not benefit.

We are now close to the conclusion. Based on the above, Lee Nak-yeon's approval rating increase is better interpreted as an effect of external inflow rather than internal shifts within the ruling party. In particular, the shift of opposition supporters in Bu-Ul-Gyeong and among 30s was decisive. This effect changed not only Lee Nak-yeon's personal ratings but also the overall ruling and opposition party approval rating trends. Below is a comparison of the combined approval ratings of all presidential candidates divided into ruling and opposition parties nationwide.

Overall, while the undecided voters decreased, the presidential race, which was led by the opposition 47% to 45% in the 16th poll, reversed to 51% to 42% in the 17th poll. This was maintained at about 52% to 43% in the 18th poll. Whether this is because Lee Nak-yeon successfully attracted opposition votes, or because disappointed opposition voters (especially Yoon Seok-youl's) shifted to the ruling party and chose Lee Nak-yeon as their target, or a combination of both, is uncertain. But the current situation can be simply summarized as such.

Returning to the original question, Lee Nak-yeon is currently targeting Lee Jae-myung with fierce attacks to improve his approval ratings. It is a reasonable strategy since defeating the frontrunner in the party primary is urgent to become the final candidate. However, interestingly, despite Lee Nak-yeon's fierce attacks, Lee Jae-myung's approval ratings have not dropped. Lee Nak-yeon's rise is neither due to taking votes from Lee Jae-myung nor from other minor Democratic Party candidates. Instead, it is reasonable to view the result as arising from the shift of voters who left Yoon Seok-youl and the movement of 30s and Bu-Ul-Gyeong residents who previously supported the People Power Party to Lee Nak-yeon. Then, who should Lee Nak-yeon focus his attacks on going forward? Lee Jae-myung or Yoon Seok-youl? It will be interesting to see if Lee Nak-yeon's camp changes its strategy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.