Social Distancing Level 4 Proves Ineffective... Is a Lockdown Inevitable?

No Epidemic Control Effect Seen in the Third Week of Level 4 in the Seoul Metropolitan Area
Experts Say "Cases Could Reach 2,000"
"Strengthen Measures Like Expanding Remote Work and Partial Lockdowns"

On the 28th, as the number of new COVID-19 cases approached 1,900, breaking the record again in six days, citizens are waiting for testing at a temporary screening clinic in front of Seoul City Hall. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jihee Kim] It has been 18 days since the government implemented the highest level of social distancing, Level 4, in the Seoul metropolitan area, but the COVID-19 outbreak is still not under control. If this continues, daily new confirmed cases are expected to soon exceed 2,000. Experts are calling for stronger additional measures, such as full implementation of remote work and partial nighttime lockdowns, deepening the government's concerns.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 29th, there were 1,674 new confirmed cases, marking 23 consecutive days of four-digit numbers. Of these, 1,632 were locally transmitted and 42 were imported cases. Although this is a decrease from the previous day's record high of 1,895 cases, the key indicator of the outbreak, local transmission cases, increased by 100 compared to the same day last week (22nd, 1,532 cases). To block the spread in the Seoul metropolitan area, where the outbreak is severe, the government has applied Level 4 social distancing since the 12th, but even after three weeks, the trend has not reversed into a decline. On this day alone, 1,062 patients were reported in the metropolitan area: 508 in Seoul, 460 in Gyeonggi, and 94 in Incheon.

Accordingly, discussions about the period ‘after Level 4’ have become inevitable. The government plans to observe the effects of Level 4 social distancing until next week and, if the spread does not subside, will consider ‘stronger quarantine measures.’

However, experts generally agree that it is difficult to control the spread with the current measures. This is because Level 4 social distancing has not shown significant effects for over two weeks. Professor Eom Jung-sik, an infectious disease specialist at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, said, "It has been confirmed that Level 4 over the past two weeks can suppress rapid spread but cannot turn the trend into a decline. If this continues, the current level will be maintained or cases will slightly increase again, so quarantine measures must be strengthened."

There are also criticisms that the revised social distancing system introduced this month has lowered the quarantine level too much. Professor Jeong Ki-seok, a respiratory specialist at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital (former head of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency), explained, "The current Level 4 is insufficient to be called the highest level. It is weaker than the previous Level 2.5, allowing multi-use facilities to remain open until 10 p.m., so its effect is minimal. The highest level of the social distancing system should include measures prepared for the very last stage to increase public predictability."

As a ‘plus alpha (+a)’ measure for Level 4, expanding remote work is prioritized. Professor Cheon Eun-mi, a respiratory specialist at Ewha Mokdong Hospital, pointed out, "There is concern about infections through shared car rides during lunch breaks or public transportation, so it is necessary to encourage remote work as much as possible to block contact itself." Professor Eom also argued, "Remote work should be expanded by imposing penalties if employees do not work remotely without special reasons, to reduce daytime mobility."

There are also voices calling for lockdowns, which have been used overseas to block large-scale outbreaks. However, since full lockdowns cause significant socio-economic damage, partial lockdowns during specific hours should be implemented. Professor Jeong emphasized, "Strong measures such as banning movement from midnight to 4 a.m. are necessary," adding, "We must prevent people from roaming indiscriminately at night and spreading infections."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.