[Imokhee's Homopoliticus] The Taste of Voting Fingers

Voters Divided by Age and Ideology... Beginning to Learn the Power of Voting
Challenging to Analyze MZ Generation... Swing Voters Who Do Not Follow Only One Side

Imokhee, Asia Economy Senior Correspondent

The chaotic presidential election season has begun again. Various analyses are emerging regarding the prediction of next March's presidential election. First, let's examine regional sentiments. The direct presidential election system was implemented following the 1987 constitutional amendment. It was a contest that truly introduced the majority of voters to the "taste of voting." At that time, the overwhelming regional votes from Yeongnam and Honam appeared. This was considered one of the foremost outdated practices that needed to be eradicated for national unity.

Looking back objectively, expressing regional sentiments should not be dismissed solely as a negative choice. As democratic elections took root, certain regional groups struggled to gain more influence. That desire continues even today. Although it has somewhat diluted, it remains the top factor in analyzing voting behavior.

Former President Kim Dae-jung (DJ) is known as a shrewd election strategist. In the 1987 presidential election, the opposition was divided. The ruling party candidate was former President Roh Tae-woo. The opposition included DJ, former President Kim Young-sam (YS), and former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil (JP). DJ promoted the "four-way winning theory," arguing that although Honam's population was smaller than Yeongnam's, unity could secure victory. He openly instilled strategic voting among regional voters.

Honam voters, who felt victimized by the authoritarian regime based in Yeongnam, quickly adopted strategic voting. DJ's vote results in Honam were remarkable: Gwangju 94.4%, Jeonnam 90.3%, Jeonbuk 83.5%. Nevertheless, DJ finished third. In the 1997 election, DJ expanded the scope of regional solidarity by allying with JP from the Chungcheong region and reached the pinnacle of power.

Even after DJ, Honam voters' strategic voting tendencies persisted. Unable to find a political figure matching DJ's influence, they looked outward. This led to the rise of former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in. Although from Yeongnam, they were elected with absolute support from Honam. Former President Roh experienced both the bitter and sweet tastes of regional sentiments. He attempted Yeongnam-Honam integration through bipartisan politics, but it was not successful.

The 1990 three-party merger created a massive ruling party. At that time, Honam was isolated as an opposition stronghold. When progressive governments won in the 2000s, Yeongnam, especially the Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) region, became an isolated island. It was natural for TK voters, who had long been the center of power, to feel deprived. They too learned the necessity of strategic voting.

During the 5th and 6th republics, the ruling party devoted effort to linking occupational and interest groups?professions, religions, age groups. Groups with even a few thousand guaranteed votes were given reciprocal benefits. In an era before social networking services (SNS) developed, taxi drivers were especially favored. They provided group votes and significant word-of-mouth effects among passengers. Voting tendencies by generation and gender were less consolidated than today. Elderly groups, youth groups, women's groups?each party treated them at the level of targeting occupational groups, often selecting their leaders as proportional representation lawmakers.

However, since the 2000s, generational voting patterns have become distinct. With several horizontal power shifts between ruling and opposition parties, voters divided into progressives and conservatives. Voters split by age and ideology began to learn the power of consolidated voting. Currently, those aged 60 and above lean conservative, those in their 40s lean progressive, and those in their 50s show centrist tendencies.

The most difficult group to analyze is the so-called MZ generation (Millennial + Generation Z), born after the 1980s. They are swing voters who do not follow one side exclusively. They do not show a specific ideological tendency. They switch their support for parties and candidates based on policies they care about. They are adept at spreading political issues through SNS. Recently, the faction favored by these 20s and 30s has tended to win. The MZ generation is discovering the "taste of casting votes."

Because of this, as the presidential election heats up, both ruling and opposition parties and candidates are putting their lives on the line to capture the MZ generation. Policies and personnel moves aimed at the youth are ongoing. However, the election scene is not that simple. There are regional voters who have already experienced the taste of strategic voting. There are generational voting blocs divided into conservatives and progressives. To understand the picture, these must be analyzed in three dimensions along with the MZ generation.

Viewing Lee Jun-seok, leader of the People Power Party, as elected solely by young generation support is a one-dimensional analysis. The conservative base among older age groups and the TK region suppressed their true feelings and aligned with the MZ generation, which is more important. They realized that to win, they must capture the swing voter MZ generation and the centrist bloc. Until now, strategic voting patterns of Honam and progressive voters in their 40s stood out. Now, TK and conservatives aged 60 and above are also awakening to strategic voting.

Neither side now chants slogans like "Honam unity" or "Yeongnam rally." Nor do they promote "progressive grand coalition" or "conservative general mobilization." Voices urging restraint toward "Moonbba" and the "Taegukgi unit" are emerging within each camp. There is also considerable opposition within the Democratic Party toward Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung. Yet, if victory cannot be guaranteed with another candidate, Lee must be chosen. The mainstream of the People Power Party may also be dissatisfied with former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and former Auditor General Choi Jae-hyung. Still, to win, they must accept and endure. There is no room to discriminate between insiders and outsiders.

This point is the biggest focal point of next year's presidential election. How much the hardliners in both camps endure will determine the election's outcome. If no ruling party candidate has a chance of winning, they will be ignored. The same applies to opposition candidates. Instead, candidates on both sides have become flexible in adopting policies aimed at centrists. Sensing this, candidates are preparing savvy policies targeting the de-ideologized group represented by the MZ generation.

With core supporters of both camps having learned and recognized strategic voting, the election result is truly unpredictable. It resembles the U.S. presidential election case, where confusion arose from failing to gauge the "shy conservative" reality. Voters who suppress their convictions are formidable. They have no blind loyalty to candidates. They move forward only to see their camp win. Candidates tread on thin ice. If their poll ratings drop, they can be ousted at any time. Whether inside or outside the camp, they must damage opponents as much as possible to survive. The "taste of voting" cannot be blamed endlessly. However, the resulting life-or-death struggles and fierce battles are worrisome. Hopefully, it will not reach a level that fractures the nation.

Lee Mok-hee, Asia Economy Senior Specialist

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.