"Semiconductor, Steel, and Mokjae Markets, Look at the Mask Shortage... Industry Selection Strategy"

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Seon-ae] It is very important to decide whether to include 'excess demand' in the causes of the current surge in demand and supply bottlenecks. If there is no excess demand, the currently strong industries will not see their stock prices decline for a while. However, if excess demand is believed to exist, the situation is completely different. KB Securities compared the current market situation of semiconductors, steel, and lumber to last year's mask crisis.

According to KB Securities on the 23rd, the price of one mask exceeded 4,500 won in March last year. Despite this price, people lined up to buy, and eventually the government intervened to control mask prices. If mask supply was low, people might have bought only small amounts, but that was not the case. On the contrary, demand exploded as people tried to buy as many as possible, keeping at least one box at home as a reserve. One of the causes blamed for the mask crisis at the time was hoarding by distributors. Later, the government designated distributors and limited purchases to two masks per person at pharmacies.

Similar phenomena of 'price surges, bulk orders, and hoarding' appeared in the current markets of semiconductors, steel, and lumber, just like last year's mask situation. The important point is after the excess demand storm has passed.

Lee Eun-taek, a researcher at KB Securities, explained, "We know well what happened in the mask market. Prices fell, production decreased, and conversely, mask buyers were finally relieved from supply bottlenecks. If there is excess demand, the fate of the current 'raw material-related industries' and 'finished product set companies' will also change their positions in a similar pattern."

KB Securities forecast that inflationary pressures will be quite strong from May to July. However, they emphasized that inflationary pressure will decrease in the second half of the year. One reason for this is the 'mask case.' The researcher said, "Looking at mask prices after excess demand passed, they plummeted," and added, "Therefore, while paying attention to inflationary pressures in the stock market this early summer, we should not fall into excessive pessimism at that time."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.