Central Clinical Committee Chair: "Even if 70% of the Population is Vaccinated, 'Herd Immunity' is Difficult... It Will Become Endemic"

O Myung-don, Chair of the Central Clinical Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases, Press Conference
"Removing Masks for World Travel in November Does Not Happen Automatically"
The Key to Herd Immunity Is Not 'Preventing Onset' but 'Preventing Secondary Infection'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Ji-hee] There are observations that it will be difficult to achieve the government’s goal of ‘herd immunity by November.’ Even if more than 70% of the population receives the COVID-19 vaccine by November, it will be difficult to form herd immunity, and the COVID-19 virus is expected to become endemic.

On the 3rd, Oh Myung-don, Chair of the Central Clinical Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases (Professor of Infectious Diseases at Seoul National University), stated at a press conference, “Even if 70% of the population is vaccinated, it will be difficult to achieve herd immunity, and the COVID-19 virus will become endemic and coexist with us.”

Oh’s assertions can be summarized as follows: ▲ Herd immunity is difficult to achieve ▲ The COVID-19 virus will become endemic and continue to exist on Earth ▲ Humanity will live with COVID-19 by receiving vaccines like the flu ▲ COVID-19 vaccine strategies should focus on minimizing damage rather than eradicating the virus.

Regarding the claim that herd immunity is reached when 70% of the population is vaccinated, Oh said, “Many people believe that once herd immunity is achieved, COVID-19 will disappear, masks can be removed, and international travel will be free,” but he pointed out, “However, reaching a 70% vaccination rate does not automatically mean the virus disappears or social distancing ends.”

He emphasized that the ‘immunity’ in herd immunity refers to the ‘secondary infection prevention effect’?preventing transmission to others rather than preventing disease onset. Oh explained, “If a vaccine has a 95% preventive effect, herd immunity is achieved when 75% of the population is immune,” but he stressed, “The problem is that no vaccine currently has more than 95% infection prevention efficacy.” He further noted, “The 95% effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine refers to preventing disease onset, not preventing transmission.”

He added, “Even if herd immunity is reached, the risk of infection spread does not immediately become zero,” and warned, “If social distancing is eased prematurely, the epidemic could resurge. The elderly and high-risk groups remain in danger.” Oh reiterated, “The government’s definition of herd immunity is when 70% of the population is vaccinated, but academically, herd immunity means the virus disappears from society and all social distancing ends once that threshold is reached, so there is a difference.”

Ultimately, Oh predicts that COVID-19 will become endemic like the flu. He said, “Many experts predict that we will live with COVID-19,” and “Vaccines can prevent severe cases, but mild cases will continue to occur, which is similar to the influenza model.” He added, “We do not vaccinate everyone to eradicate the flu,” and emphasized, “The focus should be on minimizing damage by reducing severe cases and deaths.”

When asked about the extent of normalcy that can be restored as vaccination progresses, he explained, “Most discussions so far about herd immunity have been at large group levels rather than individual levels. Achieving a certain immunity level in a large group is different from individuals having immunity,” and “In Europe and the U.S., even before reaching national immunity levels, guidelines have been provided considering individual immunity and activity risk to determine when masks can be removed and social distancing relaxed.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.