PBOC Urges Immediate Abolition of Birth Restrictions... Concerns Over 15% Decline in Labor Force by 2050 (Comprehensive)

"By 2050, China's Population to Decrease by 2.2%, US to Increase by 15%"
Severe Low Birthrate and Aging... "Education and Technological Advances Also Ineffective"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The People's Bank of China, the central bank of China, has released a report urging the Chinese government to immediately abolish birth control measures. The analysis warns that if the current trends of low birth rates and aging population continue, the labor force ratio between China and the United States could reverse by 2050, risking the loss of economic superiority. With the National Bureau of Statistics of China expected to announce the results of the population census at the end of this month, attention is focused on whether the Chinese government will further relax birth control policies.

According to foreign media including CNBC and Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 15th (local time), the People's Bank of China proposed in the report released that the Chinese government should immediately abolish birth control and relax the policy to allow at least three children per family. It warned that if the current trends of low birth rates and aging continue, the labor force ratio could decline below that of the United States, resulting in a loss of economic advantage.

The report states that China's current birth rate was 10.48 per 1,000 people in 2019, the lowest level since the founding of the country in 1949. If this low birth rate trend continues, China's population is expected to increase by only 32 million by 2050, with an estimated 2.2% decrease compared to the current population. However, during the same period, the United States, with a birth rate of 11.4, is projected to see a 15% population increase, the People's Bank of China pointed out.

With the decline in population growth rate, the People's Bank of China forecasted that China's working-age population will begin to decrease by 0.5 percentage points annually starting in 2025, and by 2050, the working-age population could drop by 15.2 percentage points compared to now. As of 2019, China’s labor force ratio relative to the total population was 5.4% higher than that of the United States, but by 2050, it could fall to 1.3% lower, according to the analysis.

Concerns were also raised that aging, along with the decline in the labor force, will put pressure on China's economy. The People's Bank of China expressed worry that due to rapid aging, the ratio of elderly population to the working-age population will rise from 17.8% in 2019 to 43.6% in 2050, making elderly support a serious social issue.

Chen Hao, a researcher at the People's Bank of China who led the report, emphasized, "If the government hesitates even slightly to abolish birth control, it will miss valuable time to respond to demographic changes and repeat the mistakes experienced by developed countries," adding, "Advances in education and technology cannot compensate for population decline."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.