[AKYUNG Poll] Public Opinion Shifts Toward People Power Party... The Flow of Public Sentiment Is 'Regime Judgment Theory'

LH Scandal, Real Estate Controversy, Vaccine Supply Delay Concerns Reflected
Oh's Approval Rating Surpasses Majority at 55%
People Power Party Supporters Show Consolidation
Party Approval: People Power Party Leads at 34% Over Democratic Party's 32.6%

[Asia Economy Reporters Naju-seok, Oh Ju-yeon, Geum Bo-ryeong] The flow of public sentiment was a 'regime judgment theory.' The approval ratings of the president and the ruling party weakened, and the public sentiment, including independents, clearly shifted toward the People Power Party. This was confirmed in almost all indicators of this Asia Economy poll, including the Seoul mayoral and Busan mayoral races, and presidential and party approval ratings. It is interpreted that this reflects the recent typhoon-level development of the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) scandal, the real estate controversies involving Kim Sang-jo and Park Ju-min, and concerns over delays in COVID-19 vaccine supply over the past month.

◆ People Power Party candidates surpass majority support = Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor, and Park Hyung-joon, the candidate for Busan mayor, saw their approval ratings rise by 5.7 percentage points and 10.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous surveys (Seoul conducted on February 6-7, Busan on February 20-21). Oh's approval rating exceeded 50% for the first time at 55%, and Park's was 59.8%. Meanwhile, Park Young-sun of the Democratic Party for Seoul mayor and Kim Young-choon for Busan mayor saw their approval ratings drop by 3.7 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points respectively. In Busan, the previous survey conducted on December 12-13 last year showed Park at 45.8% and Kim at 30.3%.

The consolidation of the People Power Party's support base was also evident. Among People Power Party supporters, 96.2% in Seoul and 95.2% in Busan said they would support Oh and Park respectively. In contrast, the Democratic Party showed relatively lower consolidation, with 86.2% of Democratic supporters in Seoul and 90.5% in Busan expressing support for Park and Kim respectively. With the number of People Power Party supporters exceeding that of the Democratic Party among all respondents, the support base is strongly united. Furthermore, more than half of respondents defined this election as an opportunity for 'regime judgment.' In Seoul, 56% agreed with the regime judgment theory, while only 36.1% supported regime stability. In Busan, 63.1% chose regime judgment, and 29.6% agreed with regime stability.

◆ People Power Party leads Democratic Party in party approval ratings = The party approval ratings showed the People Power Party at 34%, slightly ahead of the Democratic Party at 32.6% within the margin of error. The People Power Party's approval rating rose by 6.7 percentage points compared to the survey on February 6-7, while the Democratic Party's rating fell by 0.4 percentage points. During the same period, the proportion of independents decreased by 5.1 percentage points from 18.6% to 13.5%.

In the three previous regular polls (January 2-3, January 30-31, March 6-7), the Democratic Party maintained a lead of 5.5 to 6.7 percentage points, but now the race has become neck and neck. The public sentiment in Busan, which had shown a close contest between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party, confirmed an absolute lead for the People Power Party. In Busan, the People Power Party's approval rating rose by 9.2 percentage points from the February 20-21 survey to 42.4%. The Democratic Party's rating dropped by 1.9 percentage points. The proportion of independents decreased by 5.1 percentage points from 17.5% to 12.4%.

The percentage of respondents who 'do not support' President Moon was over half in both Seoul and Busan, at 55.4% and 60.5% respectively. The gap between 'support vs. non-support' widened compared to the previous survey, with 12.3 percentage points in Seoul and 22.8 percentage points in Busan.

This Asia Economy poll, commissioned to Win-G Korea Consulting, was conducted on 1,020 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul from February 30-31. It was conducted using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method, and the sample was based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of January. Weighting was applied by gender, age, and region (cell weighting), with a response rate of 6.8% and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The Busan poll surveyed 1,012 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Busan from February 30-31, also using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method. The sample was based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of January, with weighting by gender, age, and region (cell weighting). The response rate was 12.5%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

*According to the Public Official Election Act, from the 1st of this month until 8 p.m. on the 7th, the publication of poll results is prohibited; however, it is permissible to publish or report on surveys conducted up to the 31st of last month during this period.

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