[4 Candidates SWOT] Will the Ruling Party Title Be a Boon or a Bane... The Biggest Obstacle Is 'Real Estate'

4·7 By-election In-Depth Analysis

If the 'Regime Judgment' Frame Solidifies,
Negative Impact on Park Young-sun and Kim Young-choon,
Oh Se-hoon's Mayoral Experience is a Double-Edged Sword,
Park Hyung-joon Faces Expansion Limits Amid Solo Run

The strengths and weaknesses of the ruling and opposition party candidates running in the April 7 Seoul and Busan by-elections are relatively clear. The ruling party candidates share the common advantage of administrative experience and the support of a large ruling party. However, the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) scandal is an unavoidable threat factor for candidates from the ruling party. Opposition candidates also do not lag in experience, including former Seoul mayors and former Blue House senior secretaries for political affairs. Their potential to attract moderate voters despite belonging to conservative parties is also a strength. However, considering that the biggest issue in this election is 'real estate,' allegations related to their assets act as vulnerabilities.

◆ Park Young-sun and Kim Young-choon's ruling party title: a 'benefit' or a 'poison'? = Among the 25 autonomous districts in Seoul, 24 district heads and 101 out of 109 Seoul Metropolitan Council members belong to the Democratic Party of Korea, which can be an attractive background for the ruling party's Seoul mayoral candidate. Especially since this Seoul mayoral term is only 1 year and 2 months, the 'speed' of policy implementation is important. When seeking cooperation from the Seoul Metropolitan Council on legislation and finance, a ruling party mayor can have an advantage.

However, if accumulated dissatisfaction due to the government's real estate policy failures and the LH scandal solidifies into a 'regime judgment' frame in this election, the ruling party title becomes a disadvantage. Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate who emphasizes her experience as Minister of SMEs and Startups and continuously announces pledges tailored to small business owners and the '21-minute city,' may lose the opportunity to highlight her strengths regardless of her abilities.

From the perspective of Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate, the more the election leans toward a regime judgment narrative, the more favorable it is for him, and recent polls have shown favorable results for him. His strengths include experience as the 33rd and 34th Seoul mayor, the ability to attract moderate voters, and excellent oratory skills. It is even said that the ruling party has met its toughest opponent. Oh's mayoral experience and competitive spirit can be both strengths and weaknesses. He has a history of resigning from the mayoral office over the free school meals controversy. Regarding the Naegok-dong self-compensation controversy, he has drawn a line in the sand, stating he would withdraw from the race if a conscience declaration emerges. The Naegok-dong self-compensation controversy may cause voter fatigue amid disputes over its truthfulness.

◆ LH beats Gadeokdo, ruling party needs more cards = In Busan, where conservative colors have strengthened, Kim Young-choon, the Democratic Party candidate, is struggling by promoting the Gadeokdo New Airport. As a politician from the 1980s activist group, he has a broad political spectrum, having served as a member of the 16th, 17th, and 20th National Assembly and as the first Minister of Oceans and Fisheries under the Moon Jae-in administration, and he has a strong backing as the ruling party candidate, which is a positive factor. Ahead of the passage of the Gadeokdo New Airport Special Act, the ruling party leadership has visited Busan several times to support Kim.

However, his weaknesses include losing the 2012 Busan Jin-gap district election, being defeated by former Busan Mayor Oh Keo-don in the 2014 Busan mayoral election, and losing to People Power Party lawmaker Seo Byung-soo in the 21st general election, showing a thorny path in Busan. Moreover, controversy has arisen over former Mayor Oh's family owning land near Gadeokdo, leading to counterattacks. Kim emphasizes transparency by disclosing his assets and repeatedly highlights Park Hyung-joon's People Power Party candidate's LCT preferential treatment allegations, but his negative campaign is criticized for its limited effectiveness.

On the other hand, Park's dominance in various polls despite the ruling party's LCT attacks is encouraging. The region's strong conservative tendency and nationwide public outrage over the LH scandal provide a very favorable stage for Park. Additionally, he has raised his recognition as a 'rational conservative' through TV debate programs and strategically emphasizes being a 'genuine Busan man' who has lived in Busan for 30 years. His image as a conservative party 'think tank,' built through founding the Busan Economic Justice Practice Citizens' Coalition (Gyeongsilryeon) in the 1990s, serving as a 17th National Assembly member, and as a Blue House senior secretary for political affairs during the Lee Myung-bak administration, is also a positive factor. However, his limitation in expanding support to those under 40 as a conservative party candidate is considered a drawback.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.