[AKYUNG Poll] Park Young-sun and Oh Se-hoon in a Neck-and-Neck Race Within Margin of Error... 'Close Contest' Situation

Park Young-sun Leads in Multi-Candidate Virtual Matchup
Neck-and-Neck with Oh Se-hoon 'Within Margin of Error'

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] In a virtual multi-candidate poll for the April 7 by-election, Park Young-sun of the Democratic Party and Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party showed a tight race within the margin of error.

According to a survey commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-Gi Korea Consulting conducted on April 6-7 among Seoul residents aged 18 and older, the question "Among the following figures, who do you think is suitable as the next mayor of Seoul?" (candidates named randomly) showed Park Young-sun leading with 30.3%. Oh Se-hoon followed with 27.9%, and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party came next with 24.7%. Kim Jin-ae received 4.1%, Cho Jung-hoon 0.7%, other figures 2.3%, and none/don’t know 10.0%.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The gap between first-place Park and second-place Oh was 2.4 percentage points, a very close race within the margin of error (±3.1%). Amid fluctuating public sentiment, Oh’s support rose sharply by 16.7 percentage points compared to the January 30-31 poll (11.2%) conducted by this outlet through Win-Gi Korea Consulting. Park’s support increased by 5.7 percentage points, and Ahn’s by 2.3 points during the same period. Between the two surveys, Oh was selected as the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral candidate, defeating Na Kyung-won, while Park defeated Woo Sang-ho and Ahn defeated Geum Tae-seop in their respective primaries.

Park enjoyed balanced support from men (29.6%) and women (30.9%), with strong preference among middle-aged and older voters: 40s (44.6%) and 50s (36.4%). This was followed by 30s (33.3%), 60s (24.4%), and 70+ (21.3%). Support was lowest among 18-29 year-olds at 18.6%. By party support, 72.6% of Democratic Party supporters chose Park as the suitable candidate, and 62.7% of respondents who support the president also backed Park.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Oh was clearly preferred among seniors, with 49.8% support from those aged 70 and over and 48.3% from those in their 60s. Support among other age groups was 50s (27.6%), 18-29 (21.9%), 40s (17.5%), and 30s (13.2%). Oh’s support was similar between male (28.2%) and female (27.7%) voters. Among People Power Party supporters, 55.4% supported Oh, and 45.3% of those who said they do not support the president also backed Oh.

This month’s survey was conducted on April 6-7 with 1,002 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seoul, using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method. The sample was based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of late January, weighted by gender, age, and region. The response rate was 8.3%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Meanwhile, the January 30-31 poll was also conducted among Seoul residents aged 18 and older. The overall response rate was 7.6%, with 1,009 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the Ministry of the Interior and Safety’s resident registration population as of December 2020 (cell weighting). The sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.