[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] US-ROK Joint Exercises Set... Will North Korea Provocate?

At the ceremony commemorating the 42nd anniversary of the establishment of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command held on the 6th at the Collier Field Gymnasium in Yongsan US Army Garrison, Seoul, Commander Robert Abrams is presenting an award to a meritorious person. / Photo by Joint Press Corps

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] On the 14th, a military official said, "The South Korea-U.S. military authorities have agreed to conduct the first half joint command post exercise (CPX) in the second week of March and are discussing specific schedules and details, but cannot disclose the exact schedule."

Within our military, it has been decided to conduct a 16-day South Korea-U.S. joint exercise in the second week of March next year and an 18-day exercise in mid-August. However, considering the COVID-19 situation and the possibility of North Korean backlash, the schedule is known to have been significantly reduced.

The South Korea-U.S. alliance plans to conduct the exercise in two phases to verify the future combined forces command for the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) in the first half of this year. Regarding this, the Korean side is in favor of verifying and evaluating the FOC this time, but the U.S. side is reportedly showing a reserved attitude, citing the COVID-19 situation and other reasons.

The second half joint command post exercise held from August 18 to 22 last year was also significantly scaled down due to COVID-19, and the South Korean military and U.S. Forces Korea conducted the exercises separately, resulting in a 'half-hearted' FOC verification.

North Korea is highly likely to use the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises as a pretext for provocations. At the beginning of January, Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, stated at the party congress that depending on the South's attitude, the situation could return to the "spring days three years ago," setting the suspension of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises as a precondition.

North Korea also held the "Space Science and Technology Symposium-2020," hosted by the Central Committee of the Korean Federation of Science and Technology Societies, indirectly expressing its determination to develop artificial satellites and long-range rockets. It cannot be ruled out that North Korea may carry out military demonstrations such as test launches of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles as pressure against the U.S. Biden administration.

The United Nations (UN) Security Council prohibits North Korea from launching rockets using ballistic missile technology, including those carrying artificial satellites. This is because the launch vehicle technology used to place satellites into orbit forms the basis of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). North Korea launched the Unha-3 in December 2012 and the Kwangmyongsong in February 2016, both claiming them as satellites. Our military authorities have judged these actions as preliminary tests for ICBMs.

Recent remarks by Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, emphasizing the necessity of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises but noting that large-scale exercises carry various implications on the Korean Peninsula, and the flexible response urged by Unification Minister Lee In-young, are understood in this context.

Some speculate that North Korea will refrain from high-intensity provocations such as ICBM launches. Conducting ICBM launches, which directly violate UN sanctions against North Korea, could lead to stronger sanctions, worsening the economic crisis already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, it is expected that North Korea will consider the possibility that the Biden administration might return to "strategic patience," focusing on strong sanctions rather than dialogue with North Korea.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.