US Health Authorities Warn, "Over 200,000 Additional Deaths in Two Months if Variant COVID-19 Spreads"

Worst-case scenario projects 650,000 additional deaths
"Increasing mask-wearing rate could reduce about 100,000 deaths"

[Image source=Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, USA]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] U.S. health authorities have projected that if the spread of COVID-19 variants intensifies, more than 200,000 additional deaths could occur in the United States alone by early May. Although the trend of COVID-19 spread in the U.S. is showing signs of gradual stabilization, concerns are rising that the situation could worsen again due to the rapid spread of variant viruses. Rapid vaccination is key, but even as it approaches two months since vaccinations began, only about 25 million people have received at least one dose, leading to pessimistic forecasts that President Joe Biden’s pledge to vaccinate 100 million people within his first 100 days in office will be difficult to fulfill.

According to foreign media such as CNBC, on January 31 (local time), the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which creates COVID-19 prediction models for the U.S. government, stated that depending on the recent spread of COVID-19 variants, the cumulative death toll in the U.S. could reach as high as 653,671 by early May. Considering that the cumulative death toll in the U.S. was 440,843 according to Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 statistics on that day, this means that more than 210,000 additional deaths could occur in just over two months.

IHME projected, "If the spread of variants is not taken into account, the death toll by early May is estimated at 594,623, and if nationwide mask-wearing rates reach over 95%, this number could decrease by about 30,000 to 563,484," emphasizing once again the importance of mask-wearing.

While the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. has passed its peak and is showing signs of improvement, the situation remains unstable due to the spread of variants. According to Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 statistics, daily new cases in the U.S. peaked at over 300,000 on January 2 but decreased to 166,113 on January 29 and further dropped to 136,200 on January 30. Daily deaths, which reached a record high of 4,466 on January 12, decreased to 3,604 on January 29 and 2,640 on January 30. Hospitalizations also fell below 100,000 for the first time in two months.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

However, the spread of variants is still not slowing down. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of January 30, three types of variants have been identified in 31 states, with a total of 437 confirmed cases. The UK variant has infected 434 people across 30 states including California, while the Brazilian variant has been reported in one case and the South African variant in two cases so far.

However, the actual number of variant infections is estimated to be much higher. Andrew Stanley Pekos, a professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, pointed out, "COVID-19 tests currently conducted in the U.S. do not distinguish variants, and variant identification can only be done in specialized laboratories," adding, "The variants could continue to spread undetected."

Rapid vaccination is presented as the only solution, but it is still not proceeding smoothly. According to CDC COVID-19 vaccination statistics, as of January 31, 49,933,250 vaccine doses have been distributed nationwide, with 62% (31,123,299 doses) administered. Among these, only 25.2 million people have received their first dose. Nearly two months after the first vaccinations began on December 14, less than 10% of the entire population has completed vaccination.

CNN reported, "President Biden’s plan to vaccinate 100 million people within his first 100 days is expected to be very difficult to achieve," adding, "The Biden administration’s health team is still spending time searching for vaccine supply data."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.