Will the 'Concrete Support Layer' Shake...? 'MB·Park' Pardon Debate Stirs 'Pro-Moon' Faction [Han Seung-gon's Political Notebook]

Lee Nak-yeon’s Pardon Proposal for 'MB·Park'... Pro-Moon Faction 'Boiling'
President Moon's Approval Rating at 35.1%... Negative Evaluation 60%
What Conclusion Will Emerge on Pardoning Two Former Presidents?

President Moon Jae-in [Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Han Seung-gon] As Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, continues to advocate for the 'pardon theory' regarding former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, opposition from the 'Chinmun' (親文; the core supporters of President Moon Jae-in's political philosophy and administration) faction has persisted daily, creating a burden not only for Lee but also within the Democratic Party.

There are views that cracks may be forming among the so-called 'concrete support base' of President Moon, particularly among supporters in their 30s and 40s. Additionally, some interpret that the Chinmun faction is asserting their rights related to the 'Gwanghwamun Candlelight' rallies that aimed to impeach former President Park. Some Democratic Party supporters have even voiced calls for disciplinary action against Lee.

Negative evaluations of President Moon have also emerged within his core support base. According to a poll released on the 7th by a public opinion research agency, positive evaluations of President Moon's governance have remained in the 30% range for six consecutive weeks, while negative evaluations have exceeded 60%. The increase in negative evaluations was particularly noted among those in their 30s and 40s.

According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on behalf of YTN from the 4th to the 6th, targeting 1,505 adults nationwide, President Moon's approval rating dropped by 1.5 percentage points from the previous week to 35.1%. Positive ratings have hovered in the 30% range for six consecutive weeks since recording 37.4% in the first week of December last year, with figures of 36.7% (week 2), 39.5% (week 3), 36.7% (week 4), and 36.6% (week 5).

Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is giving an interview to Yonhap News at the party leader's office in the National Assembly to mark the New Year of 2021, the Year of the Ox.

On the other hand, negative evaluations rose by 1.3 percentage points from the previous week to 61.2%. Among the negative evaluations, the rating of 'very poor' (47.1%) was significantly higher than 'somewhat poor' (14.1%).

The rise in negative evaluations was influenced by defections among the core support base, particularly those in their 30s and 40s and women. Negative evaluations of President Moon increased by 3.9 percentage points to 62.2% (positive 33.1%) among those in their 30s, by 2.4 percentage points to 54.0% (positive 45.2%) among those in their 40s, and by 3.6 percentage points to 60.2% (positive 35.5%) among women.

Negative evaluations also outpaced positive ones among those in their 20s (positive 31.1% / negative 62.3%), 50s (38.3% / 60.0%), 60s (30.1% / 66.5%), and those aged 70 and above (29.5% / 64.3%). Except for the 40s age group, negative evaluations exceeded 60% across all age groups. The margin of error for the poll is ±2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Detailed results can be found on the Realmeter and Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission websites.

The background of the negative evaluations appears to be influenced by Lee Nak-yeon's pardon theory for former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, as well as controversies surrounding Park Beom-gye, the nominee for Minister of Justice.

A Realmeter official analyzed, "Overall, a series of major and minor adverse events occurred, but there was no factor visible that could reverse the mood."

In November 2016, citizens gathered at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul, holding candles and chanting for the impeachment of then-President Park Geun-hye. [Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ "Why ignore the candlelight voices?" 'MB·Park' pardon theory 'boiling over'

As negative evaluations rose among those in their 30s and 40s, some speculate that this is related to Lee's pardon theory. In particular, it is interpreted that strong opposition to the pardon theory among the 40s Chinmun, President Moon's core support base, has contributed to the negative evaluations.

On pro-government ('Chinyeo', 親與) online communities, posts opposing Lee's so-called 'MB·Park pardon theory' have appeared, along with harsh calls for his impeachment.

One Democratic Party supporter stated that Lee committed acts harmful to the party and reported him for ethical violations. He pointed out, "The person representing the party with 180 seats silences the Supreme Council members, yet the party leader himself says, 'This is the path to national unity,' and tries to smooth things over by saying, 'This is a heartfelt decision I've thought about for a long time,' without consulting party members or supporters and without any discussion with the Blue House."

Another Democratic Party supporter in their 30s lamented, "The impeachment of Park Geun-hye was an achievement made by us candlelight citizens holding candles in the cold winter at Gwanghwamun." He added, "I don't understand why such a significant decision is being made unilaterally by the leader." He further noted, "Criticism of the leader is emerging among Democratic Party supporters, and perhaps this is the result of his own choices."

Kim, a Democratic Party supporter in his 40s, emphasized, "We held candles at Gwanghwamun, impeached former President Park Geun-hye, and ultimately brought about the Moon Jae-in administration. Then, the opinions of the candlelight citizens should have been sought." He raised his voice, saying, "I hope politicians take responsible politics. There is great anger among party supporters toward the leader. There must be a stance on this."

Summarizing the situation, some Chinmun factions and Democratic Party supporters opposing the 'MB·Park pardon theory' appear to be asserting their rights related to the candlelight rallies in November 2016 at Seoul's Gwanghwamun Square, which aimed to impeach former President Park. They also seem to be arguing that since they played a major role in the launch of the Moon Jae-in administration, their decisions should be considered in the Democratic Party's major and minor decisions.

Former President Lee Myung-bak, who was sentenced to 17 years in prison on October 29 last year by the Supreme Court for charges including embezzlement of company funds and bribery, is entering Seoul National University Hospital in Jongno-gu on the morning of the 30th for medical treatment.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

◆ Opposition to Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye pardons at 54%... What role will Lee Nak-yeon's 'pardon theory' play?

Meanwhile, a poll released on the 8th showed that more than half of the public opposes pardons for former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye.

A survey by Gallup Korea conducted from the 5th to the 7th among 1,001 adults nationwide asked their stance on pardoning the two former presidents. The results showed that 54% of respondents opposed pardons under the current administration, while 37% supported pardons.

By age group, support for pardons was dominant among those aged 60 and above at 69%. Opposition was highest among those in their 30s (72%) and 40s (72%), and relatively lower among those in their 50s (54%).

Among Democratic Party supporters, 75% opposed pardons, and 78% of progressives opposed them. Among People Power Party supporters, 70% supported pardons, and 63% of conservatives were in favor. Among the politically unaffiliated (support 38%, oppose 50%) and centrists (support 33%, oppose 58%), opposition to pardons was higher than support. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews by professional interviewers. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 15%. Detailed information is available on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Former President Park Geun-hye [Image source=Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court's final ruling on the sentence of former President Park Geun-hye, who was tried on charges including state corruption and illicit receipt of National Intelligence Service special activity funds, is expected this week.

The Supreme Court's 3rd Division (Presiding Justice No Tae-ak) will hold a sentencing hearing on the 14th at 11 a.m. for Park, who is on trial for bribery and other charges under the Act on the Aggravated Punishment of Specific Crimes.

Previously, in the July retrial, Park was sentenced to 15 years in prison and fined 18 billion won for bribery charges, and 5 years in prison for charges of state funds loss. She was also ordered to pay 3.5 billion won in fines.

If the Supreme Court upholds the retrial verdict, Park will have to serve a total of 22 years in prison, including the already confirmed 2-year sentence for interference in the Saenuri Party (now People Power Party) nomination process.

In this context, attention is focused on what stance President Moon will take regarding Lee Nak-yeon's advocated pardon theory. Earlier, on the 1st, Lee emphasized 'national unity' as a New Year's national agenda in a media interview and stated, "At an appropriate time, I will propose pardons for former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye to President Moon Jae-in." He added, "This year is effectively the last year President Moon can work, so I thought this issue should be resolved at the right time. Regardless of the support base's approval or disapproval, I intend to propose it. The party should play a more active role going forward."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.