US Democrats Face Challenges to Unilateral Control Even After Senate Takeover

Precedent of Power-Sharing Agreement in 2001's 50-50 Situation
Filibuster Cannot Be Stopped Except for High-Ranking Official Approval
Majority Party's Unilateral Political Leadership Difficult

Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock, whose victory in the Georgia Senate runoff election is certain
[Photo by Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] The 'Blue Wave,' where the U.S. Democratic Party controls the executive branch and holds the majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, is becoming a reality. However, due to the nature of the Senate, it is assessed that cooperation is more likely than one-sided rule.

On the 6th (local time), a day after the runoff election for the Georgia Senate seat, the victory of Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock is confirmed. Fellow Democrat Jon Ossoff is also close to winning. With this, the Democratic Party is expected to secure 50 seats and, with the Vice President's casting vote, likely gain the majority in the Senate.

However, the Democratic Party cannot simply celebrate. The current election results make cooperation with the Republican Party in the Senate inevitable.

The historical election results where the Senate was split 5-5 show that one-sided rule is difficult. In U.S. history, the Senate has been exactly divided in half only three times: in 1881, 1954, and 2001. According to The Washington Post, in 1881 and 2001, the Democrats and Republicans agreed to cooperate. In 2001, the chairmanships of Senate committees were split evenly between the two parties. This means the tradition of the majority party holding all committee chair positions was not followed. If committee chair positions are evenly shared, one-sided policy actions by the Democrats become impossible.

According to The Washington Post, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stated in 2016 that if the Senate seats were split 50-50, the agreement from 2001 should be followed.

The reason the Democratic Party cannot push through one-sided policies is also confirmed by congressional rules. To proceed to a vote by blocking filibusters during bill discussions, a procedural vote requires the support of at least 60 members. The Democrats find it difficult to secure this number.

However, for high-level official appointments, securing 51 votes is enough to invoke the so-called ‘nuclear option,’ which makes filibusters difficult, increasing the likelihood that the Democrats’ positions will be reflected.

In this regard, the Associated Press reported, "Considering the congressional rule that most major bills require 60 votes to advance, even a Senate led by the Democrats will not guarantee everything President Biden wants."

The relatively limited influence of party leadership over senators is also a point to consider.

There is also the possibility that the Democrats may lose their majority status in the Senate before the next election. If a Democratic senator cannot complete their term and the governor of their state is a Republican, the governor can appoint a Republican successor. In that case, the Republican Party would regain the Senate majority.

While the Democrats secured the majority in the House, their number of seats has significantly decreased compared to two years ago. This was an unexpected result. It is also assessed that guaranteeing control of the House in the election two years from now will be difficult.

As the progressive camp continues to advance, conflicts with the centrist leadership may also expand. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 'rising star' of the progressive camp, openly opposed the election of Speaker Pelosi.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.