Next Year's ROK-US Joint Military Exercise Schedule Confirmed... Variables Remain

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Our military has finalized the schedule for next year's South Korea-U.S. joint exercises to expedite the early transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON). However, due to many variables such as the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it is uncertain whether the joint exercises will proceed normally. In this situation, North Korea held a Space Science and Technology Forum, clearly expressing its determination to develop long-range rockets including satellites, raising concerns about missile provocations in response to the resumption of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises.

On the 2nd, a government official said, "Our military internally decided to conduct the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises for 16 days in the second week of March next year and for 18 days in mid-August, and plans to finalize the schedule with the U.S. within this month."

In 2014, South Korea and the U.S. agreed on a conditions-based OPCON transfer without setting a fixed timeline. To this end, the two countries attempted to verify the Full Operational Capability (FOC) of the future Combined Forces Command during the late August joint command post exercise this year, but it was not properly conducted due to the reduction in exercise scale caused by the spread of COVID-19. Our military plans to complete the FOC verification in the joint exercises early next year and agree with the U.S. on the target timing for the transfer. If the OPCON transfer within President Moon Jae-in’s term is impossible as pledged in his election promise, they aim to at least set a target date. However, if COVID-19 does not subside, even this plan becomes uncertain, which is a concern.

North Korea’s provocations are also a variable. North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on the same day that the "Space Science and Technology Forum-2020," hosted by the Central Committee of the Korean Federation of Science and Technology Societies, was held, indirectly revealing its determination to develop satellites and long-range rockets. A separate "Artificial Earth Satellite Subcommittee" forum was held, where experts showed interest in materials that could improve the lifespan, safety, and operational accuracy of satellites and their components, KCNA reported. Additionally, forums on space observation and basic science, space materials and elements, and applied technology were conducted, with over 170 papers presented.

KCNA explained the background of the event as "to widely introduce, disseminate, and generalize the scientific and technological achievements made in the project to implement a peaceful space development policy and to actively promote the development of space science and technology." However, since subcommittee forums were held and satellites were emphasized, it expressed a determination to develop long-range rockets. Accordingly, there is a possibility that North Korea may carry out military demonstrations such as test launches of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles to pressure the U.S. Biden administration in response to the resumption of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises next year.

The United Nations (UN) Security Council prohibits North Korea from launching rockets using ballistic missile technology, including those carrying satellites. This is because the launch vehicle technology used to place satellites into orbit forms the basis of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). North Korea launched the Unha-3 in December 2012 and the Kwangmyongsong in February 2016, both under the pretext of satellites. Our military authorities have judged these actions as preliminary tests for ICBMs.

Some speculate that North Korea will refrain from high-intensity provocations such as ICBM launches. If it carries out ICBM launches that directly violate UN sanctions, it would face stronger sanctions, potentially worsening the already struggling economy due to the COVID-19 crisis. Additionally, it is expected that North Korea will consider that the Biden administration might return to "strategic patience," emphasizing strong sanctions over dialogue with North Korea.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.