Will the 'Corona Curfew' Work Against the Untargeted 3rd Wave of COVID-19?

From Tomorrow, Level 2 High-Intensity Measures
At Least 2 Weeks Needed for Effect
Concerns Grow Over Year-End Gatherings

[Asia Economy Reporters Choi Dae-yeol and Jo Hyun-ui] Social distancing level 2 quarantine measures to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) will be implemented starting from the 24th. High-intensity measures include strengthening restrictions on the number of people and usage time in crowded facilities and completely closing high-risk places. The key is how much each individual on the front lines will comply in the next two weeks to curb the spread. However, the current conditions are not favorable. Compared to previous outbreaks, infections are occurring nationwide in everyday places, raising concerns that government quarantine efforts alone may have limitations.

New cases below 300 due to weekend effect
But metropolitan area cases average 206, exceeding average
"Effect of social distancing expected in about two weeks"

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of 0:00 on the 23rd, the number of new confirmed cases was 271. Although the spread, which had been in the 300s for five consecutive days until the previous day, has somewhat slowed, considering the decrease in diagnostic tests over the weekend, there is a high possibility of an increase again during the weekdays. In particular, among the new confirmed cases on that day, 206 were local infections in the metropolitan area, far exceeding the recent one-week average of 175. Although not reflected in the statistics of that day, 31 confirmed cases were reported at an army unit located in Cheorwon, Gangwon Province.

Starting from the 24th, social distancing in the metropolitan area will be raised to level 2, and the Honam region to level 1.5. This is a further escalation just five days after the previous upgrade to level 1.5 in the metropolitan area on the 19th, indicating the government's view of the recent situation as a crisis. It is also unusual that specific projections such as "400 cases this week, 600 cases next week (Im Suk-young, Head of the Situation Management Division at the Central Disease Control Headquarters)" have been presented.

On the 23rd, one day before the metropolitan area's social distancing level is raised to Level 2, commuters are moving busily at Sindorim Station in Seoul. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

Kang Do-tae, the first chief coordinator of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, said on the day, "Preemptive quarantine measures are inevitable to prevent the wave of a large-scale outbreak that would cause serious damage to daily life and the economy," and "I ask everyone to thoroughly control their daily lives to prevent the spread of infection regardless of time and place."

Since it usually takes at least ten days, typically about two weeks, for the actual number of patients to decrease after social distancing is raised, the quarantine authorities also expect it will not be easy to curb the recent upward trend. Previously, when cluster infections from metropolitan area churches and urban rallies emerged, the government gradually raised the social distancing levels. At that time, after raising the metropolitan area to level 2 on August 16, the entire country was raised to level 2 on the 23rd, one week later.

When the spread did not subside even after that, the metropolitan area was upgraded to an enhanced level 2 (level 2.5) on the 30th. The number of new confirmed cases was reduced to less than half only around mid-September after the first upgrade. This means that the effect of social distancing takes about two weeks, or about a month including previous measures, to enter a stable phase.

On the morning of the 23rd, when the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) spread in the metropolitan area, students were lined up waiting to undergo specimen testing at a high school in Yeonsu-gu, Incheon, where confirmed cases were reported.

Reasons for judging the "third wave" as more serious
Infections in daily life, not specific groups or facilities
Environment conducive to transmission in winter and year-end

The government views the recently emerging "third wave" as a more severe phase than the first wave centered on Shincheonji followers in Daegu and Gyeongbuk or the second wave caused by church and rally-related infections. This is because there are more risk factors than before.

First, there is no "quarantine target." Past outbreaks were centered on specific regions, groups, or facilities where cluster infections occurred, so the virus spread could be controlled by epidemiological investigations tracking contacts of confirmed cases. Now, various cluster outbreaks are linked in a chain through everyday spaces such as schools, academies, religious facilities, and various small gatherings. In the past two weeks, the number of patients with unidentified infection routes was 453 (as of the previous day), which is similar in proportion to early this month but about three times larger in total scale. This means that untraceable sources of infection are spreading throughout the community.

The fact that the risk of virus spread is greater in winter is also a risk factor. A Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters official explained, "In winter, when the air becomes dry and the temperature difference between day and night increases, the human body does not maintain adequate resistance, and the mucous membranes, which are the first point of contact with the virus, become dry, making it easier for pathogens to invade."

On the 23rd, one day before the social distancing level in the metropolitan area is raised to Level 2, commuters are moving busily at Sindorim Station in Seoul. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

The year-end period, when contacts increase due to gatherings, is also a concern for authorities. This is why they are raising social distancing levels to forcibly reduce contacts. Under level 2 social distancing, restaurants can only offer takeout and delivery after 9 p.m., and cafes, regardless of franchise status, cannot allow consumption of food or drinks inside the store during business hours, only takeout and delivery are allowed. Karaoke rooms, gyms, billiard halls, and others must also cease operations after 9 p.m.

In effect, a "COVID curfew" is to be implemented, but compared to the past, awareness has declined and fatigue is considerable, so there are expected limitations in blocking the virus. The quarantine authorities urge people to refrain from going out except for essential activities. Chief Coordinator Kang said, "Please practice quarantine rules and social distancing even in gatherings with family, relatives, and acquaintances, and make telecommuting and non-face-to-face meetings routine in all workplaces."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.