"Relocation of the Administrative Capital: Will It Become a Setback for the Seoul By-Election?... The Ruling Party's Dilemma"

Rising as a Major Issue in Seoul Mayoral Election
Securing the Central Region in the Presidential Race, Effectively Checking the Opposition's Chungcheong Ambitions
The Scope of Public Institution Relocation Is Key

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] The debate over relocating the administrative capital to Sejong is heating up again. This follows Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, announcing that he will soon present a concrete plan aimed at the complete relocation of the National Assembly to Sejong City. It is expected to become a major issue that will influence the outcome of the Seoul mayoral by-election and even the presidential election.

According to the Democratic Party on the 12th, the "Task Force (TF) for National Balanced Development and Completion of the Administrative Capital" is about to conclude its activities and disclose a detailed plan. At a Supreme Council meeting held at the Goesan County Office in Chungbuk the day before, Lee also stated, "Seoul will be developed as the economic, financial, and cultural center of East Asia in the mid-to-long term, and we will pursue a phased relocation with the goal of the complete transfer of the National Assembly to Sejong."

For now, the ruling party appears set to continuously push the administrative capital relocation issue from the perspectives of balanced development and presidential election strategy. It is analyzed that this could give them an advantage in agenda-setting over the People Power Party, which is struggling to find a suitable central strategy for the next presidential race. More importantly, it is expected to help quell the "Chungcheong Great Hope" sentiment centered around Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol in the opposition camp.

Within the ruling party, it is believed that public opinion in Seoul is not entirely negative toward the administrative capital relocation. According to a Realmeter poll conducted in July, public opinion in Seoul on the relocation was nearly evenly split, with 42.5% in favor and 45.1% opposed. Given such a narrow gap, there is a judgment that the plan to develop Seoul as the economic, financial, and cultural hub of East Asia could potentially reverse public sentiment.

However, the mood among Seoul residents toward the ruling party is not as favorable as before, making overly optimistic forecasts difficult. A Realmeter poll conducted from the 2nd to the 6th showed that the Democratic Party's support in Seoul was 30.6%, trailing the People Power Party's 32.2% by 1.6 percentage points. Since Seoul would have to relinquish its title as the "capital," many analysts believe that the administrative capital relocation issue will not have only positive effects going forward.

There is also concern that the issue could provide the opposition with grounds for attack. For instance, Park Chun-hee, former Songpa District Mayor who recently declared his candidacy for Seoul mayor under the People Power Party, criticized the administrative capital relocation plan and emphasized that it should be "immediately halted." Kim Jong-in, chairman of the People Power Party's Emergency Committee, also stated, "If there is a firm intention to relocate the capital, then make it a campaign pledge in the Seoul mayoral by-election."

Ultimately, the key issue will be how to adjust the scope of public institution relocations. The ruling party faces the dual challenge of proposing measures that minimize damage to its support in Seoul while achieving enough institution relocations to satisfy public sentiment in Chungcheong.

The Democratic Party's intention to determine the scope of relocation through another public opinion survey is closely linked to this political context. Earlier, Woo Won-sik, head of the TF, told Asia Economy in a phone interview, "We will soon conduct a public opinion survey to determine the appropriate scope of relocation that aligns with the people's will." Some speculate that since Lee has committed to the complete relocation of the National Assembly, the current development of the Yeouido National Assembly site could be actively utilized in the Seoul mayoral election. It is reported that the Democratic Party is considering creating a startup cluster and other projects on the Yeouido site that would remain after the National Assembly relocates.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.