In the Biden Era, South and North America Face a 'Push and Pull'... North Korea Provocations, Critical First Phase on January Next Year

Biden's US Presidential Victory, President Moon's Message in Focus... Kang Kyung-wha: "US Will Not Return to Strategic Patience"

[Asia Economy Reporters Ryu Jeong-min, Lim Cheol-young, Kim Dong-pyo] Following President Moon Jae-in's congratulatory message on November 8 via social network service (SNS) to Joe Biden, the Democratic Party's U.S. presidential candidate, attention is focused on whether he will deliver a more advanced message at the Blue House senior secretaries and aides meeting on November 9.

The Blue House senior secretaries meeting is the first meeting held after the U.S. presidential election results were announced, so it is expected that the message will include congratulations to President-elect Biden as well as address current issues such as the Korean Peninsula peace process.

Earlier, President Moon stated on SNS, "Congratulations. Our alliance is strong, and the solidarity between South Korea and the U.S. is very firm," adding, "I have great expectations for the future development of bilateral relations that we will open together. Let's go together." The Blue House's choice to introduce President Moon's SNS message rather than an official briefing reflects a strategic consideration that respects President Donald Trump and also shows courtesy to President-elect Biden.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

South Korea, North Korea, and the U.S. are preparing for a 'push and pull' period that will determine the fate of the Korean Peninsula. The first critical point is the inauguration of the Biden administration in January next year, and the second critical point is expected to be the congressional confirmation hearings for the new U.S. cabinet, anticipated in the first half of next year. President Moon, who was introduced as a "negotiator" on the cover of Time magazine in 2017, is once again facing a test.

The problem is that the situation on the Korean Peninsula cannot be handled solely by President Moon's will. There is analysis that North Korea may provoke around March next year, when the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises are scheduled. Considering the schedule of the new U.S. administration's inauguration and appointments, it is expected that the North Korea negotiation team will be operational no earlier than June next year.

If the confirmation hearings for the Biden administration's foreign and security team are delayed, there is a possibility that North Korea will repeat the behavior seen during the Obama administration, when it demonstrated its presence through missile provocations. How quickly the confirmation hearings for the foreign and security team are completed and whether there will be behind-the-scenes talks before the hearings are variables to watch closely.

North Korea has maintained silence since the U.S. presidential election results were announced. North Korean state-run and external propaganda media have not reported anything related to the U.S. election as of the morning of November 9. Analysts suggest this is due to a combination of factors, including President Trump, who boasted of his friendship with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, not conceding the election, and political schedules such as the 8th Party Congress in January next year.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

It is also a point of interest whether the Biden administration will show a different approach from the Obama administration, which effectively neglected the Korean Peninsula situation based on the 'strategic patience' policy. Song Young-gil, chairman of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, said in an interview with MBC Radio's 'Kim Jong-bae's Focus' on November 9, "The consensus is that it will not return to the strategic patience policy," adding, "It is more likely to move toward an active engagement policy like the Clinton administration."

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, who is visiting the U.S., said on November 8 (local time) at the Korean War Veterans Memorial, "Judging from what several people on Biden's side have publicly said, it does not seem that they will return to the strategic patience policy of the Obama administration."

Minister Kang is scheduled to hold a foreign ministers' meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on November 9 (local time), but diplomatic circles are focusing on whether she will have contact with ordinary Biden-side officials. Candidates for Secretary of State in the Biden administration include former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, Senator Chris Coons, and Senator Chris Murphy.

Minister Kang has been reserved about disclosing whether she will meet with Biden-side officials.

A Foreign Ministry official explained, "In addition to the Trump administration, she plans to meet with members of the U.S. Congress, think tanks, and academia to request continued support and cooperation from the American public for progress in the Korean Peninsula peace process and strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.