The Equation of Global Warming and Population Aging

Global Warming and Population Aging
Heatwaves Become Frequent and Vulnerable Elderly Increase
200 Million Elderly in Densely Populated Countries like China and India

It has been found that people living alone have a higher probability of developing dementia. Photo by Getty Images Bank

The Earth is getting hotter due to greenhouse gases
and the aging population living here
What should we prepare for 20 years from now?

A joint research team composed of domestic and international experts has announced research results indicating that global warming damage could worsen due to population aging. In particular, in populous countries such as China and India, the elderly population aged 64 and over is expected to increase to about 200 million by the mid-21st century, and each country is expected to prepare countermeasures accordingly.

Jung Su-jong, Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University; Park Chang-ui, Research Associate Professor at the Environmental Planning Institute; Lee Myung-in, Director of the Heatwave Research Center at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology; and researchers from the University of Oxford in the UK released on the 7th research results on heatwaves and social vulnerability based on future climate change and population change prediction data using 27 climate models.

By mid-21st century, 200 million people aged 65 and over in China, India, and others

This study is the first to prove that aging due to changes in population structure can exacerbate heatwave damage caused by global warming. The research results were introduced last month in the international academic journal Environmental Research Letters.

The research team stated that the frequency of record-breaking hot heatwaves has increased due to global warming, and social damage has been amplified by aging. They further explained that 20 years from now, in the mid-21st century (2040?2070), the elderly population aged 65 and over exposed to heatwaves will increase, thereby increasing social vulnerability.

The research team predicted that by 2070, the global average temperature will rise by about 3 degrees Celsius compared to now, and the proportion of regions experiencing record-breaking heatwaves will increase from the current 10% to 64%. The proportion of elderly people vulnerable to heatwaves currently accounts for about 9% of the total population, but it is expected to soar to 20% in the future.

Aging and climate change must be considered

Ahead of "Cheoseo (處暑)," the seasonal division signaling the end of the heat, on the 20th, when the sweltering heat peaked, citizens visiting the Myojeoksa Valley in Namyangju, Gyeonggi Province, cooled off under the waterfall. The Korea Meteorological Administration forecasted that with generally clear weather continuing, temperatures in Seoul would hover around 33 degrees Celsius, significantly exceeding the average for this time of year, but the heatwave in the metropolitan area is expected to ease somewhat around Cheoseo on the 23rd.
Namyangju ? Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

In particular, social damage due to aging is expected to be significant in regions such as China, India, and Africa. In China, the elderly population aged 65 and over is estimated to reach 200 million by the late 21st century. Although the total population is expected to decrease, severe aging is expected to increase the number of elderly people. The research team observed that as the elderly population vulnerable to heatwaves increases, the social risks associated with heatwaves will become very large.

The situation in India and Africa was similar. In India and Africa, during the same period, the elderly population aged 65 and over exposed to record-breaking hot summers is expected to increase by about 260 million and 160 million, respectively, due to aging.

On the other hand, in the United States and Europe, which have already entered a mature stage of aging, warming rather than aging is expected to be an important factor in estimating social damage from heatwaves.

The research team stated that this is a result proving that changes in population structure, namely aging, must be considered when taking social damage from climate change into account.

The research team said, "The results of this study suggest that aging is a major cause that worsens the risks caused by record-breaking hot summers in the future," adding, "As the proportion of the elderly population increases due to aging, social heat resistance decreases and damage from heatwaves increases."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.