US Senate Likely Republican Majority... Biggest 'Obstacle' If Biden Wins

Blue Wave Prediction Misses in US... Republicans Likely to Retain Majority
Democrats Expected to Lose Seats Not Only in Senate but Also in House... "Pelosi Hit"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] With the Republican Party gaining an advantage in the Senate elections held alongside the U.S. presidential election, the possibility of a so-called 'Blue Wave,' where the Democratic Party controls the presidency and both houses of Congress, has become unlikely. Not only did the prediction of a landslide victory for Democratic candidate Joe Biden miss the mark, but the expectation of a Blue Wave also failed, leading to criticism that the credibility of local opinion polls has hit rock bottom.

According to the Washington Post (WP) on the 4th (local time), as of 5 p.m. Eastern Time, the Republican Party secured 48 out of the 100 Senate seats, while the Democratic Party secured 46. There are currently 6 seats still being counted, with 3 (Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina) expected to go to the Republicans, and the remaining 3 (Michigan, Arizona, Georgia special election) expected to go to the Democrats. If the election results are confirmed as expected, the Senate seat count will be 51 for the Republicans and 49 for the Democrats. Even if Biden wins and Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the Senate President, the Republicans will maintain the majority.

The Republicans' Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump, secured their victories the day before, and Senator Susan Collins, who was expected to lose, won re-election in Maine, strengthening the Republicans' advantage. The Associated Press reported, "The Republicans have fended off several challengers to hold the Senate, making it difficult for the Democrats to take control," but added, "It is still too early for the Republicans to declare victory." Currently, the Senate stands at 53 seats for the Republicans and 47 for the Democrats, giving the Republicans the upper hand.

As the results differed from initial opinion polls, the credibility of local polling agencies has significantly declined. Prior to the election, polling agencies predicted that the Democrats could achieve a Blue Wave by controlling the presidency and both houses of Congress. The scenario was that Biden would lead Trump in states like Florida, the Democrats would comfortably secure a majority in the House, and although the Senate would be challenging, they would gain the upper hand. Stuart Oakley, Nomura Securities' global head of currency trading, referenced the 2016 U.S. presidential election, saying, "Polls have been wrong every time," expressing disappointment by asking, "Why have we believed them until now?"

If the Republicans maintain their Senate advantage, even if Biden wins the presidency, it is expected that U.S. politics will face conflicts. The stalled discussions on additional economic stimulus measures right before the election are likely to encounter obstacles from the Republican Party. Senate Majority Leader McConnell's decision to postpone stimulus talks until after the election reflects this situation. If Biden wins, he is expected to propose a large-scale stimulus package exceeding initial expectations together with the Democratic-controlled House, but the Republicans are expected to obstruct it. Biden's campaign promises, such as raising corporate taxes and expanding multi-trillion-dollar investments to reduce carbon emissions, could also be blocked by the Senate.

The House elections, where a Democratic landslide was anticipated, also differ from the polling atmosphere. The Democrats were expected to easily surpass the majority threshold of 218 seats out of 435 total House seats. However, so far, the Democrats have secured 195 seats, the Republicans 186, with 54 seats still contested. Notably, five seats previously held by Democrats in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Iowa have shifted to the Republicans, while the Democrats have only gained two seats in North Carolina.

Bloomberg News reported that seven incumbent Democratic House members failed to win re-election, and the reduction in seats has dealt a blow to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. WP evaluated that "the Democrats, who had shown optimism before the election, are now facing political turmoil."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.