[The Editors' Verdict] Why the Yoon Seok-yeol Great Expectation Theory Is Dangerous

Sang-byeong Park, Political Commentator

The main figure of the first National Assembly inspection of the 21st National Assembly was undoubtedly Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol. Regardless of whether people like or dislike him, Yoon was enough to capture the public's attention. Among the ruling party supporters, he is seen as a "betraying political prosecutor" who is obstructing prosecutorial reform, while among opposition supporters, he is evaluated as a "fighter against the living power" opposing Moon Jae-in. Especially, the interest from the opposition supporters was explosively high, to say the least.

On the 22nd of last month, the National Assembly's Legislation and Judiciary Committee held a National Assembly inspection of the Supreme Prosecutors' Office, which was, in a word, "Yoon Seok-yeol's time." Although Democratic Party lawmakers launched fierce attacks, labeling him a "political prosecutor" without evidence and even pressured him by touching on Yoon's family matters, Yoon unleashed his characteristic frank and resolute statements as if he had made up his mind. A few days later, various opinion polls were released. Yoon ranked overwhelmingly first among most opposition presidential candidates and appeared in the top three overall.

This triggered the so-called "Yoon Seok-yeol great expectation theory" to strike the political world again. Yoon's statement during the inspection that he would "serve the people after retirement" gave more momentum to this theory. The People Power Party sending love calls to Yoon and igniting the flame of hope for the next presidential election was also based on this background. But will Yoon actually run in the next presidential election, and if he does, does he have a chance of winning? This should be examined coldly with the "eyes of common sense," not partisan calculations. In electoral politics, "common sense" sometimes flies away like the wind, but still, common sense is the strongest weapon of the moderate voters who hold the key to winning or losing the presidential election. From the perspective of that common sense, the Yoon Seok-yeol great expectation theory is not only inappropriate but also negative.

First, the "Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol" and the "politician Yoon Seok-yeol" will be vastly different. Yoon's determination to protect the prosecution organization and even confront the Blue House power is enough to receive applause from the "anti-Moon Jae-in camp." But that is all. The moment Yoon steps out of the prosecution's fence and becomes politician Yoon Seok-yeol, he must reveal his "overall capabilities" to the public. From diplomacy and national defense to labor, welfare, and even measures for monthly rent issues, he must speak for himself. But there is no time to study. Even if he studies intensively in a short period, it will not work. By then, it is highly likely that the popularity during his time as Prosecutor General will be confirmed as just a "bubble."

Second, suppose he finishes his term and challenges the presidential election around July next year. Then, the prosecution during Yoon Seok-yeol's term as Prosecutor General cannot be free from criticism that it was merely an organization for Yoon's presidential campaign. Yoon must be aware that this could become a "self-destruction" that could potentially destroy the entire prosecution organization. Nevertheless, will Yoon run for president? Moreover, will the public accept such Yoon as a presidential candidate? And will the prosecution internally support Yoon as if nothing happened? We must not overlook the fact that the public is not foolish.

Third, Yoon's family matters must be kept in mind as private discourse shifting to public discourse in the presidential election situation. Of course, if nothing happens, there is no problem. However, Yoon himself knows best about the issues concerning his in-laws that are causing controversy in the public. Although it is still just behind-the-scenes talk, Yoon must also be well aware of the nature of the media and public opinion. He should recognize that he could suffer more serious wounds than expected.

Just these three facts alone should make it clear that the recent Yoon Seok-yeol great expectation theory is full of bubbles. This is not a harsh criticism of Yoon personally or a curse toward opposition supporters. Even from the eyes of common-sense citizens, the Yoon Seok-yeol great expectation theory has no chance of winning at first. Rather, it is dangerous. Therefore, it is more reasonable to believe that the possibility of Yoon, who surely knows this, entering the next presidential election is not very high.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.