US USTR Yoo Myung-hee's Public Endorsement Draws Trade Experts' Comments: "A Major Variable That Could Shake Up the Election"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] Trade experts unanimously described the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR)'s public endorsement on the 28th (local time) of Yoo Myung-hee, head of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy's trade negotiation team, in the World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General election as a "major variable that could shake up the election landscape."

Since the WTO effectively urged Yoo to voluntarily withdraw shortly before the election scheduled for the 3rd of next month (local time) to conclude the Director-General election before the U.S. presidential election, the U.S. sent a strong message that "it wants a WTO system led by Yoo," which is expected to cause significant repercussions in the election.

From a 'procedural' perspective, experts explain that the existing plan of "unanimous nomination of the candidate on the 7th (local time) ? recommendation at the WTO General Council on the 9th, with an announcement possibly before the U.S. presidential election on the 3rd" has been broken by the USTR statement. The key issues are whether ▲ Yoo and Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala will split the term ▲ whether a vote will be held ▲ or whether a re-election will take place.

Experts believe the possibility of a re-election is slim. This is because the WTO held a "four-month short-term election" to fill the vacancy after former WTO Director-General Roberto Azev?do resigned in May. The likelihood of going to a vote is also limited. Since its founding in 1995, the WTO has maintained a 'consensus (agreement among member countries)' system for over 20 years and has never taken a Director-General election to a vote.

In fact, there is precedent where former New Zealand Prime Minister Mike Moore and former Thai Deputy Prime Minister Supachai Panitchpakdi, who failed to pass consensus, each served as Director-General for three years. Moore served from 1999 to 2002, and Supachai from 2002 to 2005.

Professor Jeong In-gyo of Inha University’s Department of International Trade said, "(Considering that Okonjo-Iweala, who has effectively been an American due to over 20 years of work at the World Bank, was not supported by the U.S., but Yoo was, and that the U.S. issued an unusual statement opposing the WTO preference survey) the U.S. message is by no means light," adding, "This removes the reason for the Korean government to withdraw, and since it is unlikely to go to a vote as per precedent, the possibility of a 'third option' similar to the 'Moore-Supachai' precedent has increased."

From the perspective of 'voter sentiment,' experts say the weight of the U.S. endorsement of Yoo is by no means light.

The basis includes ▲ the USTR’s statement evaluating Yoo’s experience in trade negotiations and policy formulation, while not recognizing Nigerian candidate Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s finance and aid experience as 'trade practical experience' ▲ the fact that the U.S. has never publicly intervened when votes were split in past elections ▲ and the difficulty for the U.S. to support a candidate favored by the European Union (EU) and China amid increasing losses in recent WTO rulings.

Professor Kang In-su of Sookmyung Women’s University’s Department of Economics said, "It appears the U.S. wants to change the overall decision-making system of the WTO, including the composition of the appellate body, after the next Director-General’s term," adding, "The U.S. likely judged that Yoo would better reflect its interests than Okonjo-Iweala, who is supported by the EU and China."

The government acknowledged that Yoo was behind Okonjo-Iweala in the WTO preference survey but did not declare a 'withdrawal.' The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated in a press release at 12:05 a.m. that "David Walker, Chair of the WTO General Council, plans to recommend the agreed candidate as the next WTO Director-General at the special General Council meeting on the 9th after reaching consensus among all member countries for the final election." The day before, President Moon Jae-in also said, "The government is neither optimistic nor pessimistic and will do its best until the end."

A government official told Asia Economy in a phone interview, "There is still a process of reaching consensus among member countries, so we will participate in that process and proceed with reasonable decisions," adding, "Nothing has been decided yet regarding withdrawal or other matters."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.