[The Editors' Verdict] 'America First' to Be Further Strengthened After the Presidential Election

The U.S. presidential election is less than two weeks away. Democratic candidate Biden, who had a significant lead in the polls, is now facing a narrowing gap as the election day approaches, putting him in a pressured position. The Wall Street Journal reported that out of the total 538 presidential electors, Biden has secured 226, President Trump 125, but it is difficult to predict which candidate will claim the 187 electors from 11 battleground states. Because the winner-takes-all electoral system awards all electors of a state to the candidate who receives even one more vote, the nationwide popular vote and the electoral vote count may not align. Recent polls show Trump overtaking Biden in Florida, a state with a large number of electors, where Trump was trailing by 3.5%, so the Democrats cannot be complacent.

There is no 'October surprise' such as the development of a COVID-19 vaccine that could overturn the race, but President Trump has emphasized his strong leadership by returning to campaigning just three days after being infected with COVID-19. Nationwide polls unfavorable to Trump are also mobilizing Republican supporters and increasing early voting turnout. Because there are even mentions of possible election disputes citing issues with mail-in voting, it is difficult to predict the final outcome prematurely. However, regardless of who wins, the 'America First' policy stance is expected to be further strengthened.

Unlike the previous election, President Trump did not announce a separate trade policy this time. This indicates that the 'America First' trade policy approach over the past four years is considered successful. The Trump administration weakened the multilateral trade order by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Paris Climate Agreement and undermining the World Trade Organization (WTO), while strengthening import restrictions under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. It replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which favors the U.S., and signed bilateral trade agreements prioritizing U.S. interests, such as renegotiating the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the U.S.-Japan Digital Trade Agreement. The biggest issue was 'tough measures against China.' Early this year, the first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal was concluded. After the COVID-19 pandemic, pressure on China has intensified, with Secretary of State Pompeo publicly mentioning even the overthrow of the Communist Party regime. The U.S. has strengthened the digital economic bloc by banning transactions with the parent companies of TikTok and WeChat and is accelerating the establishment of the Economic Prosperity Network (EPN).

The Democratic trade policy is not significantly different from the Trump administration’s from the perspective of America First. Biden has stated that he will pursue a cooperative, rules-based trade policy rather than the unilateral, deal-focused approach of the Trump administration. However, he also pledges a 'worker-based trade policy that benefits Americans,' advocating for domestic manufacturing and purchasing American-made products. He announced a plan to invest $400 billion over four years in purchasing American products and services to strengthen domestic competitiveness with a country-centered trade policy. Regarding China, he is expected to increase coordination with allies and expand the scope to include environmental and human rights issues, likely applying pressure more rigorously and meticulously than Trump.

We should not expect a significant change in the international trade environment simply because Biden, not Trump, is elected. Ultimately, new protectionism based on America First will remain the core of all U.S. trade policies. From our standpoint, we must expand our position as a middle power by strengthening 'strategic autonomy' rather than 'strategic ambiguity.'

In-su Kang, Professor, Department of Economics, Sookmyung Women’s University

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.