Johnson Steps Back from Deadline in UK: "Let's Watch the EU Summit Results"
As the Deadline for Future Relations Negotiations Approaches on the 15th, Decision Made to Postpone
'Considered Possibility of Agreement' Also Interpreted
[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who took a tough stance in the future relationship negotiations with the European Union (EU), has indicated his intention to extend the negotiation deadline. The UK had originally set the negotiation deadline as the 15th (local time), but Johnson decided to wait for the EU summit scheduled until the 16th before determining the next steps. This is interpreted as keeping the possibility of an agreement in mind, raising expectations that negotiations may continue.
According to Bloomberg and others on the 14th, the UK Prime Minister's Office stated in a press release that "the Prime Minister hopes to hear the results of the EU summit and reflect them before setting the UK's next course of action." Johnson had previously set the 15th as the negotiation deadline and pressured the EU by saying he would leave the negotiation table if no agreement was reached by then.
This statement came after Johnson held a video conference with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and Charles Michel, President of the European Council. After the call with Johnson, von der Leyen tweeted, "There is still much work to be done," adding, "The EU will strive for an agreement but will not pay the price."
EU member state leaders will meet in Brussels, Belgium, on the 15th and 16th. At this meeting, they will review the relationship between the EU and the UK and the progress made in negotiations so far, and discuss how to proceed. Since many evaluations suggest that negotiations are deadlocked with both sides maintaining their positions, they will also discuss how the EU should prepare if negotiations break down. The leaders are expected to instruct Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, to intensify negotiations to reach an agreement.
Johnson's decision to wait for the EU summit results suggests he believes there is still room for negotiation. Local media assess that this is based on a report from David Frost, the UK's chief negotiator, to the Prime Minister, stating that although it will not be easy, intensive additional discussions over the next two weeks could narrow the gap between the two sides. Johnson is expected to consider whether to continue negotiations after confirming the EU leaders' positions.
The UK and the EU officially concluded their schedule with the 9th round of negotiations on the 2nd. However, they have continued confidential talks by agreement of the leaders. Current negotiation issues include state subsidies and fair competition principles, UK territorial fishing rights, security and crime investigation information sharing, and issues related to goods trade and financial services transactions. Since there are clear differences in positions on each individual agenda item, it is unlikely that all agreements will be finalized in the short term, and a 'small deal' covering only some items is highly anticipated.
With both sides deciding to continue talks after the EU summit, the negotiations are expected to extend until early next month. This is because the negotiations must be completed considering the practical and parliamentary ratification procedures in line with the transition period ending on December 31 this year. The Guardian also reported that Jean-Yves Le Drian, French Foreign Minister, suggested aiming for the next EU summit on November 15.
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If the negotiations end in a 'No Deal,' economic damage will be inevitable. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimated that in the event of a No Deal Brexit, the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) would decrease by 6.5% over the coming years. The French Business Confederation, German Industry Association, and Italian General Confederation of Industry issued a joint statement urging, "Please do your best to reach a comprehensive agreement."
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