[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] New ICBM Unveiled in the North... Is It a Knockoff?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There are indications that the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) unveiled by North Korea at the Workers' Party's 75th anniversary military parade on the 10th may be a mock-up (a full-scale model). It may be a 'fake' rather than a prototype that has completed design and is ready for test launch.

According to military experts on the 13th, it is highly likely that the new ICBM North Korea revealed is an evolved version of the Hwasong-15, called the Hwasong-16 (KN-27). The length of the new ICBM is estimated to be about 2 to 3 meters longer than the Hwasong-15 (21m). If North Korea has completed the development of the Hwasong-16, it would be larger than the Minuteman-3 (18.2m) and China's DF (Dongfeng)-41 (21m), making it one of the world's largest mobile ICBMs.

However, many inside and outside the military assess that the likelihood of completion is low. To complete an ICBM, the following are essential: atmospheric reentry, post-boost vehicle (PBV), and nuclear warhead miniaturization technology. ICBMs experience speeds up to Mach 20 (20 times the speed of sound) during atmospheric reentry, generating extreme heat of 6000 to 7000℃. It is uncertain whether North Korea has secured materials technology that can withstand such high temperatures. Also, PBV is essential for developing multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) ICBMs, but North Korea has no test launch experience yet. Nuclear warhead miniaturization is also unclear. Currently, only the United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, and China have deployed MIRV ballistic missiles. The military and intelligence agencies describe North Korea's capabilities as 'considerable.'

Professor Jang Young-geun of the Korea Air Force Academy said, "The new ICBM revealed by North Korea clearly shows first and second-stage propulsion, but there does not seem to be enough space to mount a MIRV system," adding, "There have been cases in the past where strategic missiles were unveiled at military parades but were not operationalized." For example, the Musudan missile (Hwasong-10), first revealed at the 65th anniversary parade in October 2010, underwent test launches afterward but repeatedly failed and has not been publicly displayed since.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Gyeongnam National University said, "Since MIRV requires improvements in nuclear warhead miniaturization and lightening technology, considering North Korea's current level of nuclear warhead miniaturization and lightening technology, it is premature."

There are also criticisms that the transporter erector launcher (TEL) carrying the new ICBM lacks realism. The TEL wheels revealed at the parade were identified as 11 axles with 22 wheels. An increase in the number of wheels and length of the TEL indicates a heavier missile. However, as the TEL grows larger, mobility in mountainous terrain becomes difficult, reducing maneuverability and stealth. The new ICBM is predicted to weigh over 100 tons, so logically, a fixed launcher should be used rather than a TEL.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), said, "The new ICBM appears to be a performance upgrade by increasing the length and diameter of the Hwasong-15, but a TEL longer than 25 meters is expected to have limited mobility on North Korea's poor roads."

A Joint Chiefs of Staff official also said regarding the MIRV capability and whether it is the world's longest-range ICBM, "So far, only external images have been released, and further detailed analysis seems necessary."

Meanwhile, Defense Minister Seo Wook will depart for the United States on the afternoon of the 13th using an Air Force aerial refueling aircraft (KC-330). He will attend the 52nd Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) co-hosted with U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper on the 14th (local time).

At this meeting, South Korea and the U.S. will discuss major alliance issues including ▲ assessment of security situation on the Korean Peninsula and policy coordination ▲ promotion of wartime operational control transfer based on conditions ▲ strengthening of combined defense posture. In particular, they are expected to evaluate military developments related to North Korea's unveiling of ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and exchange views on cooperation for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

A Defense Ministry official explained, "At this meeting, the assessment of the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and the issue of operational control transfer will be major agenda items."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.