Early October Export Value Down 28.8%... Facing Negative Crisis Again (Comprehensive)

Average Daily Increase of 2.8% During Holiday
Excluding Semiconductors, Imports of Cars and Communication Devices
Decrease by 19.5%

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] Exports, which recorded a surplus last month for the first time in seven months, are now on the verge of returning to negative territory after just one month.

According to the Korea Customs Service on the 12th, export value from the 1st to the 10th of this month was $9.3 billion, down 28.8% ($3.77 billion) compared to the same period last year. The number of working days was 4.5, two days fewer than last year. Considering this, the average daily export value was $2.07 billion, an increase of 2.8% ($60 million) compared to the same period last year.

By export item, semiconductors increased by 11.2%, but passenger cars (-36%), wireless communication devices (-16.5%), and petroleum products (-58.4%) decreased. By country, exports to China (-20.9%), the United States (-33.5%), the EU (European Union, -27.2%), and Vietnam (-15.6%) declined.

Given that the government expressed optimism when exports recorded a positive figure last month, saying "Semiconductors and China are solidly supporting our exports" and "Automobiles and steel turned positive for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic," this result is disappointing.

The government maintains that the reduced number of working days means this figure should not be given much significance. A Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy official said, "Due to the Chuseok holiday, the number of working days was only 4.5, two days fewer than October 1-10 last year, so we do not place much importance on this. The fact that the average daily export value is positive is a good sign."

Experts analyzed that despite the average daily export value exceeding $2 billion and semiconductors increasing by over 10%, it is difficult to say that our exports have overcome uncertainty. On the 10th (local time), the number of new daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. rose to about 57,000, raising concerns about a "second pandemic," and it is questionable whether export values in sectors other than semiconductors can continue to increase steadily.

Kang Insu, professor of economics at Sookmyung Women's University, said, "Even if we consider the working day variable for the performance from the 1st to the 10th and the average daily performance, the fact that items other than semiconductors, including automobiles, recorded negative figures is worse than expected and means we have not yet escaped the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Automobiles, petrochemicals, and steel excluding semiconductors are expected to be affected by the pandemic in the fourth quarter as well."

Kim Soyoung, professor of economics at Seoul National University, commented, "Although the sample size is small, the fact that semiconductors increased by more than 10% is positive," but added, "Unlike the early stages of the COVID-19 spread, the world seems somewhat accustomed to conducting economic activities simultaneously, but exports are not expected to improve significantly in the fourth quarter."

Imports from the 1st to the 10th of this month were $11.1 billion, down 19.5% ($2.69 billion) compared to the same period last year. By item, semiconductors (7.3%) and machinery (0.7%) increased, while crude oil (-30.2%) and gas (-36.6%) decreased. By country, imports from China (-12.1%), the U.S. (-9.2%), the EU (-1.9%), the Middle East (-41.4%), Japan (-19.5%), and Vietnam (-17.1%) declined.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.