The Bank of Korea Says "If Mail-in Voting Expands in the US Presidential Election, Economic Sentiment May Weaken"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Eunbyeol] An analysis has emerged that if mail-in voting expands in the U.S. presidential election to be held on the 3rd of next month, political uncertainty will increase, and as a result, economic sentiment may contract.

According to the Bank of Korea's 'Overseas Economic Focus' on the 11th, the number of mail-in voting applications has surged as the mail-in voting system has been expanded in the U.S. due to the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19).

As of the end of September, the number of mail-in voting applicants was 28 million, accounting for 14% of all voters. The number of mail-in voting applications in 15 states, including four battleground states such as Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, has already surpassed the final tally of mail-in votes from four years ago. Considering that the number of automatic mail-in ballot recipients who do not need to apply in advance is 21%, the mail-in voting rate is expected to rise significantly compared to the 21% recorded in the last presidential election.

As the spread of COVID-19 has not subsided, the mail-in voting system is being expanded in the U.S. Among the 50 states, nine states have chosen to send mail-in ballots automatically to all voters, and 36 states have granted the option of mail-in voting through prior application.

The Bank of Korea analyzed that the expansion of mail-in voting could negatively affect the confirmation of election results, and if political uncertainty increases for a while after the vote, it could lead to a contraction in economic sentiment.

Earlier, the British magazine The Economist predicted that if the mail-in vote counting rate is below 70%, President Trump would be re-elected, and if the counting rate is above 80%, the Democratic candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, would win. Republican candidate Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of rejecting the election results, claiming the possibility of mail-in vote manipulation by external forces.

During the 2000 presidential election, the confirmation of election results was delayed for more than a month, and consumer sentiment continued to decline for a while. In December 2000, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged 9% compared to the previous month and continued to decline until February of the following year. A Bank of Korea official explained, "Usually, consumer sentiment improves after the presidential election, but at that time (2000), the decline continued until February."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.