[Interview] Analysis by US Political Expert: "Trump's Early Discharge Too Late to Overturn Election"

Interview with Grant Reher, Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University
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[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] "I believe the impact of President Donald Trump's early discharge on the November presidential election is limited."

Grant Reher, Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University

Grant Reher, a political expert and professor of political science at Syracuse University (photo), downplayed the impact of President Trump's discharge on the election outcome in a written interview with Asia Economy on the 5th (local time). Initially, there was a forecast that sympathy votes would increase if President Trump overcame COVID-19 and returned, but Professor Reher dismissed this. President Trump had announced through a tweet just before his discharge that he would "soon return to the campaign." Professor Reher, who earned his Ph.D. from Yale University, currently serves as the director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute and is an expert on American politics.

He cited time and momentum as the biggest constraints for President Trump. Although Trump is trying to rally his supporters, he believes it is somewhat late to overturn the election outcome. Professor Reher explained, "It is unclear how fully President Trump has recovered from COVID-19. While the experience of infection and recovery might evoke public sympathy, it will inevitably be limited. His failure in the first TV debate is also holding him back." He predicted, "Trump's supporters have already gathered sufficient strength. There is no more support base to draw from." Another concern is that if President Trump's health deteriorates again during the remaining campaign period, it would be a fatal blow.

According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal joint poll, the gap in support between President Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden widened to 14 percentage points after the first TV debate on the 29th of last month. Professor Reher cautiously predicted Biden's lead, saying, "Unless the polls are missing something significant, President Trump's campaign will face serious difficulties."

He also judged that the battleground state situation, which could decide the election outcome, is developing unfavorably for President Trump. According to RealClearPolitics' tally of key battleground state support rates on the same day, Biden leads President Trump by 4.1 percentage points. The gap in battleground states has also widened since the first TV debate.

Facing a disadvantage, President Trump plans to proceed with the second TV debate scheduled for the 15th. Biden has also expressed willingness to participate if safety can be guaranteed. Given that President Trump was effectively defeated in the first TV debate, and if the second debate proceeds with COVID-19 issues being raised, the likelihood of Biden winning this election is high.

Professor Reher predicted that unlike the first TV debate, Biden will not avoid Trump's questions and will clearly state his position. Since Biden performed well in the first debate but faced criticism as the worst debate in history, it is interpreted that Biden will choose change to secure a definite victory. However, if the TV debate format changes from the usual, President Trump, who is strong on TV, might have an advantage.

Trump's Likelihood of Election Rejection Decreases... South Korea Must Prepare for Changes in US Foreign Policy if Biden Wins

Professor Reher assessed that the most concerning possibility of President Trump's rejection of the election has rather decreased. This is because Trump's support rate has plummeted through the TV debates, and the election result may be decided by a surprisingly large margin rather than a close race. He said, "Although President Trump has stirred distrust of mail-in voting and mentioned the possibility of rejecting the election, if the results become clear immediately after the election, I believe he will accept the outcome."

While President Trump may complain about the election results, it is expected that the constitutional crisis of election rejection will not occur. He also advised that unlike former Vice President Al Gore, who conceded defeat in the 2000 election, Biden should actively declare victory.

As Biden's chances of winning increase, the possibility of changes in US foreign policy after the regime change also grows. Professor Reher said, "Biden's foreign policy should be seen as a revival of the Barack Obama administration. It will be more open to international and multinational agreements and cooperation, but the relationship between the US and Russia will definitely become more distant." Regarding relations with China and North Korea, he advised, "Since changes are expected, South Korea should also prepare."

Professor Reher expressed difficulty in prediction, saying this election is so bizarre that it will be recorded in the history of US presidential elections. He said, "This is the strangest and most bizarre election of my life. Just when I thought it couldn't get any stranger, President Trump got infected with COVID-19," shaking his head in disbelief.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.