"Trump Reelection Possibility... No Impact from TV Debate"

Kim Dong-seok, Representative of the Korean American Voter Coalition in the US, Predicts
Ginsburg's Death Provides Opportunity for Trump
"Clear Possibility of Fraud in US Mail-in Voting... Trump Will Not Concede Defeat"

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] Kim Dong-seok, a U.S. political expert and president of the Korean American Voters Coalition (KAGC), cautiously predicted that U.S. President Donald Trump's re-election is possible.

On the 28th (local time), Kim made this remark at a press briefing held at the New York Consulate General. He also predicted that the recent tax allegations against President Trump, which surfaced ahead of the first presidential TV debate, would not have much impact. Although recent gatherings of Democratic supporters have been observed, Kim analyzed that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, unlike Trump, lacks a passionate support base and is not in a position to confidently secure an election victory based on his own competitiveness and appeal.

Having participated in U.S. political civic movements for 27 years, Kim anticipated a high possibility that Trump's previously underestimated refusal to concede could become a reality. He said, "The U.S. presidential election ends the moment someone admits defeat. It seems unlikely that President Trump will acknowledge defeat."

He added, "Due to confusion caused by the implementation of mail-in voting, it is highly likely that President Trump will remain in the White House."

Kim also presented an analysis supporting Trump's claims of election fraud through mail-in voting. He diagnosed that the management of mail-in ballots, expected to surge dramatically due to the flawed U.S. election administration system, cannot be properly handled. As an example, Kim pointed out the large number of invalid ballots in the New York State primary election mail-in voting held last June.

Kim judged, "Each party aims to secure enough votes to declare victory on election day, but this is not easy. Ultimately, the courts may have to make a decision."

Having observed six U.S. presidential elections so far and having predicted Trump's victory in 2016, Kim considers this election to be on a different level. He explained, "This election is a blind election," meaning all forecasts are meaningless.

Kim predicted that the TV debates starting on the 29th will not significantly affect the election outcome. He said, "Voters' expectations for Trump are at 40 points, while Biden's are at 80 points. Trump has nothing to lose even if he makes mistakes in the TV debate, but Biden is different." Kim expects that during the debate, President Trump will target Biden's old age, stamina, and verbal slips.

Kim said, "Unlike the outsider status in the 2016 election, President Trump is now the owner of the Republican Party and is conducting the election campaign. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is unable to focus on the presidential election due to ongoing internal conflicts among factions." He explained that unlike the progressive camp led by Senator Bernie Sanders, Biden is moving further to the right than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, increasing dissatisfaction within the Democratic Party and among its supporters.

Kim evaluated the recent controversy surrounding the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the nomination of Federal Appeals Court Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court as the biggest turning point in this election.

Kim explained, "For President Trump, Ginsburg's death became a decisive opportunity to secure support in the Bible Belt region of the South and Midwest, centered on Christian conservatives." He added that following the Rust Belt, which was the foundation of Trump's 2016 victory, Trump has now also gained the Bible Belt and even flipped the key battleground state of Florida to his support, thereby closing the gap in poll support.

The Supreme Court issue is also shaking up the Senate election landscape held alongside the presidential election. Senator Lindsey Graham (R), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee leading the confirmation of nominee Barrett, was uncertain about his re-election, but with the Christian evangelical forces in the Bible Belt rallying, Kim explained that the Republican Party is now more likely to regain the Senate majority.

Kim is also paying attention to the U.S. House of Representatives elections held alongside the presidential election. This is because the election of Korean Americans is absolutely crucial for expanding the political influence of Koreans in the U.S. Kim predicted that incumbent Andy Kim (Democrat) from New Jersey is a strong candidate for re-election and that four Korean Americans, including him, are expected to win.

Kim cited the example of Indian American Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, whose candidacy led to a large fundraising effort by Indian American residents, and urged, "Compared to China and India, Korean Americans lack cohesion. We need to take an interest in politics to protect our interests."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.