'Post-Abe' Japan's Suga Cabinet Virtually Confirmed... Immediate Challenges: COVID-19 and House of Representatives Dissolution

by Jeong Hyunjin

Published 14 Sep.2020 11:33(KST)

Election for Japan's Liberal Democratic Party President Held on the 14th... Prime Minister to be Confirmed at the Extraordinary Diet Session on the 16th
Current Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga 'Leading Candidate'... Declares "I Will Succeed Abe"
Term Until September Next Year, but Likely to Seek Long-Term Rule... Attention on Timing of House of Representatives Dissolution
Expresses Strong Commitment to 'Reviving the Economy' Collapsed by COVID-19

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga (far left), who ran in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in Japan, is walking together with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (center).
[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] "There must never be a political vacuum in times of national crisis. I will firmly succeed the Abe Shinzo Cabinet."

Suga Yoshihide, Chief Cabinet Secretary and a leading candidate as the 'post-Abe' figure, highlighted Prime Minister Abe for about ten days after declaring his candidacy for the LDP presidency election. Although he formed a 'one-strong' structure with the support of major LDP factions, he emphasized policies carried out during the 7 years and 8 months of the second Abe Cabinet rather than new policies reflecting his own color. This is why the soon-to-be-launched Suga administration is called 'Abe 2.0.'

The biggest reason why Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga, who has not shed the Abe color, has become a leading candidate for the next prime minister is ironically 'continuity.' With numerous domestic and international challenges due to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), Prime Minister Abe suddenly resigned due to illness, and the stability of government operation along with the vested interests of the factions holding current power led to the result of 'Prime Minister Suga.'

Initially, it was reported that Prime Minister Abe considered Kishida Fumio, the chairman of the Policy Research Council, as his successor. However, as Kishida struggled without expanding his influence and the possibility of former Secretary-General Ishiba Shigeru, Abe's rival and the 'number one in public opinion polls,' winning increased, an alternative was needed to block this. Suga, who comes from a poor farming family, did not rank within the top three as a prospective prime minister in polls. However, he raised his public recognition to the extent of earning the nickname 'Reiwa Uncle' by directly announcing Japan's new era name 'Reiwa' in April last year. Above all, the fact that he belongs to no faction became the background for major factions to support him.

'Post-Abe' Japan's Suga Cabinet Virtually Confirmed... Immediate Challenges: COVID-19 and House of Representatives Dissolution

However, if the Suga administration is launched as expected, some predict that his lack of factional backing may rather hinder his performance as prime minister. His political base is weak, and it is highly likely that he will serve as an 'interim cabinet' until the remaining term ends in September next year. The major factions are competing for leadership by checking the moves of Nikai Toshihiro, the secretary-general who played the 'top contributor' role in Suga's election. Japanese media have already reported that former Secretary-General Ishiba and Policy Research Council Chairman Kishida are competing for second place with next year's election in mind.

Professor Jeong Daejin of Ajou University Unification Research Institute said, "As Suga himself has stated, it is highly likely to be a managerial cabinet," and predicted, "He will focus on managing the situation without worsening problems to ensure the success of the Tokyo Olympics next year."

Of course, there is also a forecast that Suga will aim for long-term rule as prime minister. This will be determined by whether the House of Representatives is dissolved and a general election is held. Winning the election would secure momentum for the administration and allow him to check rivals ahead of the LDP presidential election to be held again in September next year. Reports that the timing of the House of Representatives dissolution is imminent are being treated seriously. Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aso Taro said at a lecture the day before, "(The dissolution of the House of Representatives) timing is very important," and suggested it might take place soon after the next administration takes office. On the 9th, Defense Minister Kono Taro predicted that an early general election would be held next month.

Professor Hosaka Yuji of Sejong University said, "Since the dissolution must be done when approval ratings are high to win, the election will likely be held soon," and added, "There will be negative factors such as the Olympics next year, so the election will probably be held within this year."

If Suga is elected prime minister following his presidency, he is expected to focus on reviving the economy frozen by the COVID-19 crisis. He has emphasized, "I will devote all my efforts to the economy to restore daily life as soon as possible," mentioning employment recovery, wage increases, expansion of foreign visitors to Japan, and agricultural reform. Regarding fiscal soundness, he has taken the stance that "it is impossible without economic revival," and clarified that although a consumption tax increase is necessary considering social security, it will not happen within the next ten years. He also indicated that he would continue the large-scale quantitative easing policy represented by Abenomics.