Prospects for Military Personnel Changes Following Wave of Retirements and Surprise Appointments

It has been reported that South Korea and the United States will begin joint military exercises starting from the 5th. The photo shows a US 2nd Infantry Division M1A2 SEP tank crossing a pontoon bridge during the South Korea-US joint river crossing operation training held at the Hantan River in Yeoncheon-gun, Gyeonggi Province, in December 2015.

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Following the Minister of National Defense, the appointment of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is also being regarded by many as a 'surprise personnel decision.' Although there were many speculations that a non-Korea Military Academy (KMA) graduate would be appointed as minister in line with the current administration's policy of 'excluding KMA graduates,' Seo Wook, the Chief of Staff of the Army (KMA Class 41), was nominated as the new Minister of National Defense. Furthermore, breaking expectations that a junior officer would be appointed as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff due to seniority issues, Won In-chul, the Air Force Chief of Staff, was nominated.

On the 31st, a military official stated, "There were many speculations that a non-KMA graduate would be appointed as minister in accordance with the current administration's policy, not only excluding KMA graduates but also breaking seniority. However, former Chairman Lee Soon-jin retired in 2017, and there were criticisms that his frequent mention as a candidate for defense minister had diminished the freshness of the choice."

Another military official said, "While surprise appointments can be good, there are considerable concerns about this personnel decision given the need to command each branch of the military," adding, "There is a restless atmosphere within the military as follow-up appointments may also be surprise decisions."

With the appointments of the Minister of National Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, it is expected that follow-up appointments for the Army Chief of Staff and Air Force Chief of Staff will accelerate. There is also the practical need to prepare for the 21st National Assembly's audit this year. The Army Chief of Staff position is attracting the most attention. Names such as Nam Young-shin (ROTC Class 23), Commander of the Ground Operations Command, are being mentioned. However, there is also an assessment that others such as Hwang Dae-il, Commander of the 1st Corps (Class 43), Kim Jung-soo, Commander of the Special Warfare Command, and Ahn Joon-seok, Defense Secretary, are possible candidates. Non-KMA graduates like Park Sang-geun, Commander of the 3rd Corps (ROTC Class 25), and Heo Kang-soo, Commander of the 7th Corps (3rd Military Academy Class 23), cannot be excluded from the candidate pool. In the Air Force, juniors to Seo such as Lee Seong-ryong, Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Strategic Headquarters (Air Force Academy Class 34), are expected to move to key positions. The Navy is expected to have only minor personnel changes as current Chief of Naval Operations Bu Seok-jong was appointed recently.

As surprise appointments are deployed forward, there are many concerns about the challenges that need to be addressed. There is worry that momentum may be lost in accelerating the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) within the Moon Jae-in administration. It is reported that South Korea and the U.S. have differences over verification standards regarding the OPCON transfer. There are also predictions that the transfer process will be delayed because the full operational capability (FOC) verification of the future combined forces command may not be properly conducted during the joint exercises in the second half of this year. Additionally, they will have to tackle major pending issues such as Defense Reform 2.0, military diplomacy related to defense cost-sharing, and the relocation of Yongsan Garrison and the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command.

In particular, the cooperation of the Army, which is most affected by troop reductions and military structural reforms under defense reform, is absolutely necessary, and how much the Army will cooperate remains a key issue. The standing forces will be reduced from 555,000 at the end of this year to 500,000 by 2022. The number of corps will decrease from eight to six by 2022, and divisions will be reduced from 38 to 33 by 2025.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.