Amid Spreading Speculation on Abe's Health, 'Post-Abe' Moves Accelerate

Ishiba Shigeru, Kishida Fumio, and Suga Yoshihide
Considered Major Candidates
However, Even if They Withdraw, Aso Taro Likely to Act as Deputy Prime Minister for the Time Being

▲Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] On the afternoon of the 28th at 5 p.m., Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a press conference regarding the response to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and his own health, while the movements of the 'post-Abe' candidates are also accelerating.

▲Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party [Image source=Yonhap News]

The most likely 'post-Abe' candidate mentioned is former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba. He has the highest approval ratings in major public opinion polls. However, despite his popularity among the public, his weak factional power within the party is considered a limitation. Moreover, having faced off against Prime Minister Abe twice in past LDP presidential elections, Abe's strong opposition to Ishiba also acts as an obstacle. According to LDP officials, Ishiba is Abe's political rival, and Abe is said to be unwilling to concede the successor position to Ishiba. Because of this, Ishiba has recently been strengthening his allies by meeting with Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai and others. Additionally, on the 18th, he reportedly met with Hiroshi Moriyama, the LDP's Diet Affairs Committee Chairman, and had discussions. Since expanding support among LDP lawmakers is necessary to become prime minister, the relationship with Moriyama, who manages parliamentary operations, is important.

▲Fumio Kishida, LDP Policy Research Council Chairman. (Photo by EPA)

Another strong prime minister candidate is Fumio Kishida, Chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council. Recently, the private broadcaster Nittere aired footage of Kishida shopping for groceries after work and cooking dinner with his son. This has led to speculation that Kishida is emphasizing a down-to-earth image. Initially, the post-Abe candidate endorsed by Prime Minister Abe was also said to be Kishida, but recently it is reported that the person Abe favors is Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga.

On the 25th, the Asahi Shimbun reported, "With both Kishida and Ishiba lacking a decisive edge, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga is gradually emerging."

▲Yoshihide Suga, Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan [Image source=Yonhap News]

Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga, who is rapidly rising as a post-Abe candidate, gained recognition by pushing forward the 'Go To Travel' campaign, a tourism promotion policy, despite the spread of COVID-19. It is analyzed that with Suga taking the forefront, Prime Minister Abe, whose health deteriorated, was able to step back naturally.

However, Suga strongly denies being mentioned as a post-Abe candidate, stating, "I have no intention whatsoever of becoming prime minister," drawing a clear line.

Other candidates are also distancing themselves, saying the timing is not right. The COVID-19 crisis has severely shaken Abenomics, which supported the LDP, and the rising youth unemployment rate has led to the loss of the young demographic, a key support base.

Amid various speculations about the succession structure assuming Abe's resignation, it is expected that even if Abe resigns, the likelihood of an immediate early general election is low. The prevailing view is that Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso's acting administration will continue for the time being.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.