Why Russian President Putin Mentioned Troop Deployment and Intervened in the Belarus Crisis

Putin Forms Reserve Security Forces Dispatched to Belarus
Plan to Deploy if Situation Worsens
Concerns Over Belarus Becoming a Second Ukraine
Worries About Impact on Russia if Belarus Regime Changes

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Russian troops could be deployed in the Belarus situation. He indicated that Russia would intervene directly if anti-government protests led by the opposition continue. Not only did he reject Western demands to mediate the Belarus crisis, but he also openly expressed his intention to support the current regime.

On the 27th (local time), President Putin said in an interview with the TV channel 'Rossiya-1', "We have formed a reserve force composed of Russian security agency personnel to restore order amid the chaos in a neighboring country," adding, "We will intervene if necessary."

Russian President Vladimir Putin
[Photo by AP News]

He stated, "At the request of Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko, we organized a reserve force for law enforcement," but added, "The force has not been deployed as we decided not to send troops unless the situation worsens."

The New York Times (NYT) described Putin's remarks as a strong warning that Russia would intervene directly if the situation deteriorates further amid the anti-government protests that began on the 9th of this month.

Russia has supported President Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus continuously since 1994. The Washington Post (WP) interpreted Putin's mention of the possible dispatch of a security reserve force as a clear indication that he wants President Lukashenko to remain in power.

Putin's stance directly contradicts the demands of Western countries. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron had requested Putin to mediate dialogue between President Lukashenko and the opposition to resolve the Belarus crisis.

Putin's hint at possible direct intervention in the Belarus situation is interpreted in two major ways.

First, Putin is concerned that if the pro-Russian regime of President Lukashenko collapses due to anti-government protests, a pro-Western regime might emerge. Previously, Russia responded strongly by deploying military forces in response to pro-Western movements in Georgia and Ukraine.

The Belarusian opposition also emphasizes that even if regime change occurs, relations with Russia will not change. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who ran as an opposition candidate in this election, has expressed willingness to engage in dialogue with Russia. However, since Putin has effectively declared his intention to protect President Lukashenko, the Belarusian opposition's attempts to court Russia are unlikely to be effective.

Additionally, there is a view that Russia is concerned about the impact of the Belarus crisis on Russia itself, given Belarus is a neighboring country. If the once ironclad Lukashenko regime collapses, Russia worries about the consequences. For President Putin, who has maintained power by changing presidents and prime ministers, the prospect of regime change in a neighboring country due to anti-government protests inevitably raises concerns about the political repercussions for Russia.

Western countries have reacted against Putin's moves. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, "Belarus is an independent country, and no country, including Russia, should interfere."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.