Drifting GSOMIA, South Korea "Ready to Terminate Anytime" VS Japan "Stable Operation is Important"

Nine-Month Suspension of Termination Since Last November... Ongoing Unstable Situation
De Facto Agreement Maintained, Tense Standoff... Surface Extension Notice Deadline on the 24th Passed Without Progress
Some View 'Whether Japan's Additional Retaliation Over Forced Labor Compensation Cash-Out Is a Turning Point'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] The South Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), which the South Korean government sought to terminate in response to Japan's unilateral export restrictions but has been postponed under the pretext of resolving the issue through dialogue, is currently adrift. While Japan has reiterated the importance of the stable operation of GSOMIA, South Korea maintains the stance that it can terminate the agreement "at any time," resulting in an unstable situation persisting since November last year.

GSOMIA, originally concluded to prepare against North Korea's missile threats, has maintained its validity for nine months since its suspension just before termination in November last year. This continued as the South Korean government let the automatic one-year extension notification deadline on the 24th pass without any special remarks. GSOMIA, signed on November 23, 2016, requires notification of extension or termination 90 days prior to expiration.

On the 24th, Japan sent a warning to the South Korean government. Yoshihide Suga, Chief Cabinet Secretary of the Japanese government, stated at a regular briefing, "GSOMIA is recognized as strengthening cooperation and linkage in the security field between South Korea and Japan and contributing to regional peace and stability," adding, "Based on the regional security environment, it needs to be operated stably." He further said, "We will strongly demand appropriate responses from the South Korean side." The Nihon Keizai Shimbun also emphasized the ongoing tensions between North and South Korea, arguing that "the benefits to South Korea are significant."

In contrast, the South Korean government showed no notable reaction and maintained the position that it "can terminate the agreement at any time." Spokesperson Kim In-cheol responded to inquiries about the government's stance on GSOMIA at a regular briefing by saying, "It is the same position as previously explained." This is interpreted as an intention to continue the suspended status for the ninth consecutive month, keeping the agreement in an unstable state.

In fact, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently stated in a written report to the National Assembly that it would "carefully review whether to reactivate the effect of the termination notice" regarding GSOMIA, adding, "Our government suspended the effect of the termination notice on November 22 last year on the premise that it can terminate the agreement at any time." While confirming a consensus on the principle of "resolving issues through dialogue" amid the strained relations caused by Japan's export restrictions following the forced labor rulings, it also left open the possibility of retaliatory measures.

The unstable situation is likely to continue indefinitely for the time being. On the 25th, Min Hong-chul, Chairman of the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly, mentioned Japan's retaliatory export restrictions in an interview on MBC Radio's "Kim Jong-bae's Focus," stating, "Due to the lack of trust between countries, the South Korean government issued a termination notice for GSOMIA, and that situation remains unchanged." He added, "Currently, the agreement is effectively valid," explaining that "this is because of the U.S. position within the South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation framework."

Some speculate that as the process of liquidating Japanese companies' domestic assets for compensation related to forced labor claims intensifies, the issue of GSOMIA termination could resurface if Japan takes additional retaliatory measures. Analysts suggest that if Japan proceeds with a second round of retaliatory actions following last year's export restrictions, South Korea could build diplomatic justification to terminate the agreement.

Japan Steel, the perpetrator of forced labor, has filed an immediate appeal against the South Korean court's seizure order. Previously, the Japanese government raised its voice, stating that if South Korea moves to liquidate the assets of the company, it would "respond calmly with all options on the table." Japanese local media have also mentioned possible retaliatory measures by the Japanese government, including temporarily recalling Koji Domita, the Japanese Ambassador to South Korea, suspending or tightening visa exemptions for Koreans, and imposing financial sanctions.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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