Dilemma of Social Distancing Level 3

Worrying About the Economic Impact Burden

On the 23rd, when social distancing level 2 was expanded nationwide, citizens gathered at the Galaxy Note20 experience center set up in a large shopping mall in Yeongdeungpo, Seoul. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] As the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) continues, health authorities are struggling with the '3-step dilemma.' Although an internal policy has been set to raise social distancing to the highest level, Step 3, as the last card to prevent a pandemic, the path to implementation is fraught with difficulties.

Not only are the economic repercussions of Step 3 a concern, but the situational judgment required to make such a decision despite these burdens is also challenging. It is easier to decide when confirmed cases surge rapidly. However, if the number of confirmed cases continues to hover around 200, as it is now, it inevitably becomes difficult to determine the right timing.

According to health authorities on the 24th, they plan to observe the current situation at least until the latter half of this week before deciding on raising social distancing to Step 3. Social distancing was raised to Step 2 on the 15th for the Seoul metropolitan area and expanded nationwide starting the 23rd. Since the effects of such measures typically appear with a delay of about a week, they intend to assess the outcomes of quarantine efforts around the upcoming weekend before making a judgment.

Considering previous large-scale outbreaks such as the Shincheonji Church cluster, where new cases continued steadily over several weeks even after the first patient was identified, authorities expect new cases to remain steady for the time being. Although the number of new cases on this day slightly decreased to the 200s, taking into account that private testing centers were closed over the weekend, this is seen as a temporary decline, and it is likely that the number will continue in the 300 to 400 range for some time.

Step 3 social distancing is a high-intensity measure that stops the daily lives of the majority of the public, including banning indoor gatherings of more than 10 people. It is decided in consultation with experts when the average daily confirmed cases exceed 100 to 200, and when doubling of new cases occurs more than twice consecutively, indicating an explosive increase. The number of cluster outbreaks, the proportion of cases with unknown infection routes (so-called 'dark cases'), and the rate of infections occurring within the quarantine network, such as among contacts of confirmed patients, are also considered.

Yoon Tae-ho, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters' quarantine team, said, "If the spread does not subside during this week, health authorities will have no choice but to consider raising to Step 3, which is a grave situation." He added, "Raising to Step 3 means halting all daily activities except essential social and economic activities, which will have a fatal impact on the entire public and economic activities and inevitably cause painful consequences for everyone."

Raising social distancing levels is likely to trigger an economic downturn. The authorities' dilemma also lies in the uncertainty of whether such measures will actually yield quarantine results. During the Shincheonji incident, mask-wearing increased and citizens stayed home more in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk areas, effectively maintaining social distancing. Later, when the cluster outbreak linked to the Itaewon clubs in Seoul occurred in early May, quarantine measures were strengthened mainly in the metropolitan area, but indicators such as mobile phone movement, card sales, and transportation usage showed little change, indicating that actual contact among citizens did not significantly decrease.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.