Faster Spread, Tougher Quarantine... Shincheonji Was Just a Preview

1012 New Cases in First Week After Sarangjeil Church Cluster Infection
Exponential Increase Expected in Second Week as Incubation Ends
Rapid Expansion of Authorities' Response Scope Hinders Swift Epidemiological Investigations

[Asia Economy reporters Choi Dae-yeol, Goo Chae-eun, Jo Hyun-ui] The COVID-19 outbreak originating from Sarang Jeil Church is progressing faster compared to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus outbreak in Daegu, which was the largest cluster infection case in South Korea. In the case of Shincheonji, 731 confirmed cases were reported within one week after the first patient was identified, whereas Sarang Jeil Church has 1,012 confirmed cases, a higher number. Considering that the number of Shincheonji cases exploded in the second week after the incubation period ended, there is a possibility that the number of confirmed cases from Sarang Jeil Church could increase rapidly beyond expectations.

Moreover, unlike the Shincheonji outbreak which involved a single group, the number of infection clusters has significantly increased recently, and conditions are worse than in late February as some groups are not cooperating with government quarantine measures. From the 19th, high-intensity quarantine measures such as raising social distancing to Level 2 in the metropolitan area have been implemented, but it is expected to take several days before the effects are seen, so confirmed cases are likely to continue steadily for the time being.

On the 19th, the government strengthened social distancing measures in the Seoul metropolitan area to curb the explosive spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). Gatherings and events with more than 50 people indoors and more than 100 people outdoors are, in principle, prohibited until the 30th of this month. Private gatherings such as exhibitions, public hearings, commemorative ceremonies, recruitment exams, weddings, alumni meetings, 60th birthday parties, funerals, and first birthday parties cannot be held with many people present. Twelve types of high-risk facilities will be required to suspend operations. These facilities include clubs, room salons, and other entertainment bars, colatecs, danran bars, emotional bars, hunting pochas, karaoke rooms, indoor standing concert halls, indoor group exercise (intense GX types), buffets (including those in wedding halls), PC rooms, direct sales promotion centers, and large academies (with 300 or more people). On this day, a notice of business suspension was posted at a karaoke room on Jeonggak Youth Street in Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

1,000 Cases in the First Week... Faster than Shincheonji

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on this day, 283 new domestic confirmed cases were reported, the largest number since the cluster infection centered on Sarang Jeil Church emerged. Including 14 imported cases, the total is 297, similar to the scale seen in early March when cases surged mainly in Daegu and Gyeongbuk. The number of new confirmed cases per day ranks twelfth highest since the COVID-19 outbreak began in South Korea.

Among the new domestic cases, 252 are concentrated in the metropolitan area. Some cases in regions such as Chungbuk and Gyeongbuk have been confirmed after attending the recent Gwanghwamun rally, indicating the spread nationwide. The cluster infection at Sarang Jeil Church, where the first patient was confirmed on the 12th, has become the second largest infection cluster after Shincheonji, with the number of confirmed cases growing. Including other clusters, the total number of new domestic cases in the past week has reached 1,012.

This trend is markedly different compared to the early days of the Shincheonji cluster infection. From February 18, when the first confirmed case (Patient 31) related to Shincheonji was identified, 731 patients were confirmed domestically within one week. Most were contacts such as church members or family related to Shincheonji. The cumulative number of Shincheonji-related cases is 5,214, accounting for about one-third of all confirmed cases since the COVID-19 outbreak began in January this year. Especially since cases surged in the second week during the Shincheonji outbreak, there is a possibility that more cases will be reported this week or next week compared to the current numbers.

Pyeongtaek patient diagnosed with COVID-19 receiving treatment at Paju Hospital

False Lists, Refusal of Testing, Escape... Obstacles to Quarantine

The problem lies ahead. After the Shincheonji outbreak, when various cluster infections occurred nationwide, authorities responded quickly by tracing contacts and conducting diagnostic tests. However, recently, as the number of clusters spreading mainly in the densely populated metropolitan area has increased significantly, epidemiological investigations are facing difficulties.

According to quarantine authorities, as of the 18th, there are 13 clusters under ongoing epidemiological investigation. This number only includes clusters confirmed to have spread to multiple people; considering individual patient investigations, the capacity of local governments and quarantine authorities to respond on the ground has reached its limit. As of early this month, there are only 156 epidemiological investigators (including 61 from local governments). Usually, when a COVID-19 patient is confirmed, a field response team of about 10 people is formed, but recently, due to sporadic cluster infections, it has become difficult to organize personnel.

The rapid expansion of the scope of response and difficulties in tracing visitors to Sarang Jeil Church due to suspicions of false lists submitted are also hindering swift quarantine measures. Authorities have decided to use mobile communication base station data as they did during the Itaewon club cluster outbreak, but there are concerns about gaps since some people turn off their phones.

During the Itaewon club cluster outbreak, about 10,000 people accessed a specific area, but in this case, the church visit period is long and the Gwanghwamun rally covers a wide area, making it difficult to narrow down the actual targets. Refusal to undergo diagnostic testing or fleeing while under treatment after confirmation are also factors that undermine administrative efforts and act as obstacles to curbing the spread.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.