[Initial Perspective] Another Chungcheong Great Hope Theory

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] "Whoever wins the hearts of Chungcheong people will seize the presidency." This is a representative 'adage' circulating in Yeouido's political circles. It is related to the history of elections in Korean politics. From the 1992 presidential election to the most recent 2017 presidential election, this jinx has continued. The candidate who ranked first in the Chungcheong region invariably became the occupant of the Blue House.

This is why the 'casting board' effect of Chungcheong has drawn attention in the power dynamics of Korean politics, which has been divided between Yeongnam and Honam. As the Chungcheong public sentiment followed the prevailing trend, the equation 'Chungcheong 1st place = presidential election winner' was formed. However, the interpretation that Chungcheong sided with the prevailing trend is a political formula of the past.

Because the regional population hierarchy of 'Yeongnam > Honam > Chungcheong,' excluding the metropolitan area, has already changed. According to Statistics Korea, based on the resident registration population as of June this year, the population of Chungcheong (Daejeon, Sejong, Chungnam, Chungbuk) is 5,533,745, while the population of Honam (Gwangju, Jeonnam, Jeonbuk) is 5,118,468. The population of Daejeon is larger than that of Gwangju, and the population of Chungnam is larger than that of Jeonnam. Moreover, the population of Sejong, which exceeds 340,000, is expanding over time.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

A recurring keyword in every presidential election is the 'Chungcheong Great Ambition Theory.' In fact, politicians from Chungcheong, centered around the late Kim Jong-pil (JP), former chairman of the United Liberal Democrats who led the '3 Kim era,' challenged the presidency.

Former Prime Minister Lee Wan-koo was also a representative figure who rekindled the flame of the Chungcheong Great Ambition Theory. Based on broad support from Chungcheong figures, expectations for competitiveness in the main election grew, but he did not realize his presidential dream. Former three-term Chungnam Governor Shim Dae-pyung, former leader of the Liberty Forward Party, also prepared to run for president but had to give up. Former Chungnam Governor Ahn Hee-jung disappeared from the political stage due to his own issues.

An indispensable figure when talking about the Chungcheong Great Ambition Theory is former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Born in Eumseong, Chungbuk, he was said to have reached the threshold of the Blue House based on soaring approval ratings but could not overcome the wall of practical politics. Among current notable figures from the Chungcheong region are National Assembly Speaker Park Byeong-seug, Presidential Chief of Staff Noh Young-min, and Chungnam Governor Yang Seung-jo.

If the past Chungcheong Great Ambition Theory was a personality-centered political frame, now attention may need to be paid to the keyword. This is because 'another Chungcheong Great Ambition Theory' has landed in the political circles. It is the political wind brought by the issue of relocating the administrative capital.

Woo Won-sik, head of the Administrative Capital Completion Promotion Team of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the '1st Meeting of the Administrative Capital Completion Promotion Team' held at the National Assembly on the 27th and delivering an opening remark. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

The ruling party is driving a strong campaign for the administrative capital relocation, but the opposition party watching this has complex feelings. Considering the political momentum battle, there is no reason to follow the pace led by the ruling party. During the 2002 presidential election, the predecessor of the United Future Party, the Grand National Party, clearly opposed the capital relocation by stirring fears of a 'collapse in Seoul housing prices.' However, this time the trend is unusual.

Although the United Future Party leadership has imposed a gag order, different voices are emerging mainly from the Chungcheong region. The United Future Party Daejeon City Party argued, "The relocation of the administrative capital is a necessary policy for balanced national development, decentralization, and alleviating overpopulation in the metropolitan area." This is a strategic move considering the political aftermath. There is concern that if they show unconditional opposition, the Chungcheong public sentiment may turn away.

From the perspective of political framing, the ruling party's administrative capital relocation card is already half a success. This is because it has caused a split in the opposing camp. However, it is premature to diagnose that the administrative capital relocation issue will become the ruling party's 'trump card.'

The ruling party has expressed its will to implement by forming a task force (TF), but the reality is not that simple. Gaining public support is basic, and the burden of constitutional amendment must also be resolved. It is also a point of curiosity how Seoul public sentiment will react when the administrative capital relocation plan gains momentum.

Will the ruling party's administrative capital relocation card be a brilliant move or a blunder in the 2022 presidential election landscape? One thing is clear: an unusual wind is being sensed in the 'Jungwon (Central Plain).'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.