[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Another Round of U.S. Troop Reduction Rumors in South Korea

Pressure card considering defense cost-sharing negotiations
Possibility of withdrawal like US Forces Korea in Germany suggested by some

Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek-si, Gyeonggi-do. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] As rumors of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) reduction resurface, attention is focusing on the feasibility of such a move. Based on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which prohibits reducing USFK below the current level as resolved by the U.S. Congress, the USFK reduction rumors are being evaluated as merely a pressure tactic aimed at defense cost-sharing negotiations. However, there are also forecasts that pressure intensity will increase by broadly interpreting the NDAA’s exceptions according to U.S. President Donald Trump's will, thereby fueling controversy.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 17th (local time), citing U.S. officials, that the Department of Defense presented the option of reducing USFK to the White House. In particular, Defense Secretary Mark Esper stated in the same day’s National Defense Strategy (NDS) implementation report that "within a few months, we will begin reviewing the redeployment of U.S. forces in several combatant commands, including the Indo-Pacific Command, to which USFK belongs," raising concerns that the review of USFK reduction is becoming a foregone conclusion.

A military official said, "So far, there have been no discussions between South Korea and the U.S. regarding USFK reduction, but it could be used as an election strategy timed with the U.S. presidential election," adding, "There are voices of concern even within the military."

Our Ministry of National Defense has reiterated its existing stance on the USFK reduction rumors, stating, "South Korea and the U.S. have not yet discussed reducing USFK." It also cites the U.S. NDAA, which prohibits reducing USFK below the current level of 28,500 troops.

U.S. Troops in Risk Areas Returning to Mainland Ahead of U.S. Election
Possibility of Promoting Blocking of Free-Riding Countries Using Defense Cost-Sharing
If Implemented, Possible Elimination of Two Brigade Rear Units and Reduction of U.S. Air Force Strategic Assets

However, voices urging preparation for the realization of USFK reduction are growing louder. President Trump reversed his previous stance and decided last month to withdraw 9,500 troops out of 34,500 U.S. forces in Germany. Considering this, it cannot be ruled out that President Trump may use the possibility of USFK reduction as a card in defense cost-sharing negotiations to pressure South Korea and utilize it as an election issue for the U.S. presidential election. The rationale of bringing U.S. troops stationed in overseas risk areas back to the mainland and increasing the defense cost-sharing amount from free-riding allied countries can be used as an election strategy emphasizing benefits to national interests.

To this end, President Trump can utilize the exception clause in the NDAA passed by the U.S. Congress. The exception clause allows the Secretary of Defense to prove that the action aligns with U.S. and allied national security and that consultation with the allied country has taken place. Through the consultation process with South Korea, an ally, pressure can be maximized and, at a decisive moment, a unilateral notification may be issued.

A practical USFK reduction card being discussed is the option not to deploy the rear units of the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team of the U.S. Army’s 1st Infantry Division. The 2nd Armored Brigade, which was deployed to South Korea through Gwangyang Port in Jeollanam-do in February, must return to Fort Hood, Texas, after completing its nine-month rotation by the end of this year. If the rotational deployment every nine months is halted, no additional costs will be incurred, making it the most realistic reduction card. Some speculate that strategic weapons of USFK could be withdrawn under the pretext of enhancing strategic flexibility. This includes the possibility of downsizing the U.S. 7th Air Force at Osan Air Base, which operates U-2 reconnaissance aircraft, RC-7B reconnaissance aircraft, 24 F-16C/D fighters, and A-10 aircraft.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.