Taiwan President's Second Inauguration Day Followed by Two Sessions... Tough 'One China' Message Expected

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Young-shin, Beijing=Correspondent Park Sun-mi] The China Two Sessions (the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), which had been postponed for more than two months due to the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), will open on the 21st. The Two Sessions are China's largest political event and a venue for presenting national policy directions.

This year's Two Sessions are held the day after the inauguration ceremony of Tsai Ing-wen, the independent-leaning President of Taiwan, for her second term on the 20th, making it highly likely that Xi Jinping's leadership will more strongly emphasize the intention to unify Taiwan. This implies that issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea remain flashpoints in U.S.-China relations.

The greatest focus is on the economy. China's GDP growth rate for the first quarter of this year recorded -6.8%, causing a shock. Because of this, there is growing expectation that China will set this year's growth target in the 3% range at the Two Sessions. Tao Jun, an analyst at Suning Financial Research Institute, said on the 19th, "A 3% growth rate is the minimum threshold to create jobs for new university graduates."

There are speculations both inside and outside China that China will secure at least 5 trillion yuan (approximately 864 trillion KRW) in funds through the issuance of special purpose bonds and special government bonds. The defense budget is also a point of interest. China's defense budget is known to be around 1.2 trillion yuan annually (about 206 trillion KRW). The defense budget is directly linked to issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea. It is a hot-button issue that could provoke neighboring East Asian countries, including the United States.

◆ Declaration of Victory over COVID-19, Responsibility Debate Ongoing = The Chinese Communist Party's Political Bureau is self-praising Xi Jinping's leadership for having "successfully fought the people's war" against COVID-19. Inside China, there is significant weight on the possibility that President Xi will declare "victory in the infectious disease war" at this year's Two Sessions. Chinese state media such as the People's Daily have already been boosting the atmosphere by mentioning China's excellent quarantine measures.

However, the stance of the Western camp, including the United States, is completely different. The U.S. continues to assert that China and the World Health Organization (WHO) colluded to cause the COVID-19 pandemic. Since both sides have intentions, the responsibility debate is unlikely to subside easily.

◆ U.S. Pressure Card on China: One China (One Country, Two Systems) = Coincidentally, on the 20th, the day before the Two Sessions, the inauguration ceremony for Tsai Ing-wen's second term as Taiwan's president is scheduled. President Tsai, backed by the U.S. and other Western countries, advocates for Taiwan independence. Although it is generally believed that Tsai is unlikely to make provocative remarks toward China on her first day in office, China is on high alert. Especially if President Tsai mentions independence, China considers it a serious violation of its fundamental "One China" principle, and it cannot be ruled out that Taiwan issues will be discussed in depth during the Two Sessions.

China's Global Times pressured Taiwan ahead of the start of its second term with an article stating, "Taiwan continues lobbying the U.S. to shake the foundation of U.S.-China relations. This is causing wavering among White House and Congressional politicians."

Along with Taiwan, Hong Kong is also a pressure card used by the U.S. and Western countries. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently said, "We are paying attention to China's interference threats against U.S. journalists in Hong Kong," warning that "any decision affecting Hong Kong's autonomy and freedom guaranteed by the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law will inevitably affect the U.S. assessment of 'One Country, Two Systems.'"

The Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, "Hong Kong issues will attract more attention during this year's Two Sessions," adding, "There may be a stronger message regarding Hong Kong in Premier Li Keqiang's work report."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.