The ruling and opposition floor leaders' primary election is imminent... yet the situation remains unclear

[Asia Economy Reporters Kim Hyemin and Kang Nahum] The floor leader elections for the Democratic Party of Korea and the United Future Party are approaching, but both the electoral landscape and the outlook remain shrouded in uncertainty. Although the Democratic Party had already confirmed a 'three-way race,' it is difficult to gauge advantages or disadvantages due to vote splitting among candidates from the same faction. Meanwhile, the United Future Party has yet to finalize its candidate pool, with potential candidates engaged only in a cautious standoff.

According to political circles on the 4th, Democratic Party lawmakers Kim Tae-nyeon, Jeon Hae-cheol, and Jung Sung-ho, who are running for floor leader, have been expanding their contacts with lawmakers and newly elected members since the golden holiday period starting on the 30th of last month, appealing for votes. Lawmakers Kim and Jeon, who are touring nationwide to secure the votes of newly elected members, were carrying out local schedules on this day as well, while Jung was campaigning through phone calls and text messages.

The general analysis in political circles is that the election has formed a 'two-strong, one-middle' structure. With over 110 pro-Moon Jae-in (pro-Moon) figures entering the National Assembly in this general election, it is expected that the 'two pro-Moon frontrunners,' Kim and Jeon, will split their votes.

In particular, both candidates have solid bases within the party. Lawmaker Kim is classified as pro-Moon and part of the 'Lee Hae-chan faction.' His contribution to the party's landslide victory in this general election and his unification with Secretary-General Yoon Ho-jung, who is also pro-Moon and from the Lee Hae-chan faction, are positive factors for him. Lawmaker Jeon is also strong as the leader of the 'Bu-eong-i Meeting,' a main pro-Moon lawmakers' group, making it easy to mobilize pro-Moon lawmakers. Within the pro-Moon framework, the two candidates could end up cannibalizing each other's votes.

There is also speculation that 'non-factional minority' Jung, if he skillfully uses a check-and-balance frame that worries about the 'pro-Moon and Lee Hae-chan faction dominance' as in the last Democratic Party floor leader election of the 20th National Assembly, could stage a comeback.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The United Future Party, which was in turmoil over the 'Kim Jong-in Emergency Committee,' has only now entered the full election phase. With the election just four days away, the rough candidate pool has yet to be finalized. Senior lawmakers with three or more terms are weighing their candidacies and have entered a fierce game of brinkmanship.

So far, the lawmakers who have officially declared their candidacy are Lee Myung-soo and Kim Tae-heum. Both are figures who have succeeded in four and three terms respectively and are based in the Chungcheong region. On the 4th, Joo Ho-young, who has been elected five consecutive times in Daegu, will officially announce his candidacy. Considering that the candidate pool was not clearly sorted out at the meeting of lawmakers elected for four or more terms the day before, the possibility of a crowded field cannot be ruled out.

The new floor leader will have the heavy responsibility of forming a leadership team to rebuild the party after the crushing defeat in the general election. As the first floor leader of the new National Assembly, managing relations with the super-majority ruling party holding 180 seats will also be an important task. Especially since the 'Kim Jong-in Emergency Committee' stalled due to internal opposition, the stance on the 'Kim Jong-in Emergency Committee' and the ability to harmoniously gather divergent opinions are expected to be key factors determining the election outcome.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.