"Maintaining US Shutdown Could Reduce Death Toll by Up to 600,000"

215 million infections and 2.2 million deaths feared without quarantine measures
Inevitable economic damage, shutdown needed to prevent greater harm

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Although economic shutdowns and quarantine measures to suppress the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) cause temporary economic damage, a claim from the United States suggests that these measures can prevent greater economic harm by reducing the death toll by more than 600,000 people. This directly contradicts U.S. President Donald Trump's argument that 'social distancing' measures should be ended early due to concerns about economic damage.

According to Bloomberg News on the 23rd (local time), a research team led by Martin Eichenbaum, an economics professor at Northwestern University, analyzed in a report that if social distancing policies such as economic shutdowns in the U.S. are maintained, they will reduce the number of deaths by more than 600,000. The report was published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a U.S. nonprofit research institution.

The report warned that while it is true that current social distancing guidelines advising people to avoid dining out and shopping cause economic damage, not following these guidelines could lead to even greater harm. The researchers emphasized, "The severity of the economic recession and the health outcomes (loss of life) due to the epidemic are a trade-off." They warned that, based on the worst-case scenario estimated by German Chancellor Angela Merkel at a press conference on the 11th, where 70% of the entire population is infected, 215 million people (70% of the U.S. population) would be infected, resulting in 2.2 million deaths, and the resulting large-scale chaos and economic repercussions would manifest as a deeper recession.

Earlier, as COVID-19 cases surged in the U.S., President Trump announced social distancing guidelines on the 16th of this month. The guidelines are set to last until the 30th of this month. Regarding this, President Trump suggested the possibility of easing the guidelines during a White House briefing by the COVID-19 response task force on the 23rd, stating that if the economy falls into a deep recession due to social distancing, more serious problems could arise.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.