"Everything Changed in Just One Week"... Red Light for Trump's Reelection Path

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Warning lights have turned on for U.S. President Donald Trump's path to re-election. In U.S. political circles, it is believed that the face of the next president could change in the coming weeks depending on how President Trump responds to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and stabilizes the economy.

On the 12th (local time), the U.S. political magazine The Hill reported that the U.S. presidential election landscape is rapidly changing.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Just a week ago, U.S. political circles were optimistic about President Trump's chances of re-election. His approval ratings were at their highest during his term, and Senator Bernie Sanders, a Democratic presidential candidate who was a hesitant choice among Democrats, was likely to be his main rival in the election.

However, the situation changed within a week. President Trump faced a shaky economic situation as U.S. stock markets plummeted to record lows. Due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. stocks were being sold off across the board, and there were even forecasts that the U.S. economy could fall into a recession.

Additionally, the Democratic presidential primary landscape also shifted, with former Vice President Joe Biden, who has strong potential for centrist expansion, surging to first place in the Democratic primary race.

Those close to President Trump are also sensing this change in atmosphere. One official said, "We all know that the economic situation is the biggest variable in the election," adding, "President Trump will solve this problem and bring the market back up."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Experts diagnose that the fear of COVID-19 may be a bigger problem than COVID-19 itself. This is because it can put pressure on the U.S. healthcare system and lead to irrational behavior among citizens.

For now, the Republican Party hopes that the worst-case scenario related to COVID-19 will not occur in the U.S. and that the U.S. economy will rebound before the November election.

Until now, the forecast that President Trump would be re-elected smoothly was largely due to the U.S. economic boom. Before the fear of COVID-19 swept in, the stock market set new records daily, but with COVID-19, not only economic slowdown but also the possibility of a recession emerged, turning the situation upside down. President Trump had always highlighted the soaring stock market when boasting about his economic achievements, but now he has nothing to say.

CNN also introduced that an economic slowdown can be fatal to a president seeking re-election. Previously, President George H. W. Bush lost to then-candidate Bill Clinton due to economic conditions despite political achievements such as victory in the Iraq War.

An important point to watch in this year's U.S. presidential election is the economic situation in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs explained that, based on past cases, the economic situation in the second quarter serves as a "key predictive variable" for the U.S. presidential election. The economic sentiment felt by the public in November's election translates into votes.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.