COVID-19 May Become Endemic... Long-Term Effects Still Unknown

[Asia Economy Reporter Junho Hwang] It has been pointed out that the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is highly likely to transition into an endemic disease in the future. Additionally, in South Korea, early diagnosis of COVID-19 has resulted in a higher number of asymptomatic confirmed cases compared to China, and the aftereffects of COVID-19 have not yet been scientifically proven, according to analysis.

High Possibility of COVID-19 Transitioning to an Endemic Disease

Professor Yongseok Jeong of the Department of Biology at Kyung Hee University stated on the 13th at the 'COVID-19 Midterm Review' forum jointly hosted by the Korean Federation of Science and Technology Societies (KOFST) and the Korean Academy of Science and Technology, “Considering the characteristics of the virus and external factors, the probability of COVID-19 becoming endemic in the future is very high.”

Whether a virus becomes endemic depends on whether the virus can be eradicated or contained. If, like smallpox, the natural and intermediate hosts of the causative virus can be completely eliminated and an effective vaccine is commercialized, the virus can be stopped. However, if eradication is not possible, as with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), but preventive vaccines show some effectiveness, the virus becomes endemic after several years of transition.

Professor Jeong emphasized, "The key criterion to gauge whether an outbreak becomes endemic is the interruption of transmission chains," adding, "Without effective preventive vaccines and antiviral treatments, and if animal hosts cannot be eliminated, the virus will transition to endemic."

However, he explained, "After becoming endemic, seasonality and transmission rates are unpredictable and can only be understood by observing the outcomes," adding, "Based on past cases, the relative fatality rate is expected to decrease."

Reasons for Many Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Due to Early Diagnosis

Professor Jonggu Lee of the Department of Family Medicine at Seoul National University explained the reason for the high number of asymptomatic confirmed cases in South Korea, saying, "It appears that epidemiological differences arise because South Korea detects confirmed cases early."

He further analyzed that China was able to control the spread of COVID-19 because "the central government has a system capable of managing even the lower levels of community organizations," and "implementing movement restrictions and establishing response measures for each region were key factors."

Director Chungmin Ryu of the Infectious Disease Research Center at the Korea Research Institute of Bioscience and Biotechnology stated, "We are conducting drug repurposing work to verify whether drugs used to treat other diseases can be applied to COVID-19 treatment," adding, "Drug testing can be conducted around April to May."

Director Hyungsik Shin of the Infectious Disease Research Center at the National Medical Center predicted that AIDS treatments could be applied to COVID-19 treatment. He explained that the purpose of COVID-19 treatment is "to reduce pulmonary complications, prevent infection among medical staff, and stop the spread in the community," adding, "Given the low side effects of currently available AIDS treatments, if they prove effective against COVID-19, they could be used."

He also mentioned regarding aftereffects such as pulmonary fibrosis from COVID-19, "It is still difficult to draw conclusions at this stage, and there is not much definitive evidence."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.