"New Coronavirus, Possibility of Exponential Spread in Epidemic Patterns"

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] An analysis has emerged that the number of patients infected with the novel coronavirus (Wuhan Pneumonia) in Wuhan, China is spreading exponentially. The number of confirmed cases announced by the Chinese government is said to be just the tip of the iceberg.

On the 3rd (local time), the Washington Post (WP) reported that patients in Wuhan, the origin of the novel coronavirus, are spreading exponentially. This increasing trend shows the typical pattern of an epidemic.

Alessandro Vespignani, a professor at Northeastern University, explained, "Exponential growth is typical in the early stages of an epidemic where human-to-human transmission occurs." Exponential growth requires caution because the more infected people there are, the faster the spread becomes.

In fact, the number of deaths in Hubei Province, China, showed an increasing trend daily. Hubei Province announced that 64 people died from the novel coronavirus the previous day.

There are also suspicions that the number of patients announced by the Chinese government is significantly underestimated compared to reality.

David Hui, a respiratory specialist and professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, pointed out to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that "the official statistics from Wuhan are just the tip of the iceberg." He said, "In Hong Kong, even mild patients are immediately tested and diagnosed, but in Wuhan, only patients showing severe symptoms are hospitalized and treated," adding, "Only these patients are reflected in the official statistics."

Currently, in China, a confirmed diagnosis of the novel coronavirus requires two positive test results from suspected patients. Li Lanjuan, a member of the expert panel of the National Health Commission (NHC), also stated in an interview with the state-run China Central Television (CCTV) the previous day, "There are not enough novel coronavirus test kits in Wuhan, so not everyone can be tested, and at present, early diagnosis, early isolation, and early treatment are impossible."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.