"Iran unlikely to provoke further after nuclear deal withdrawal... Regime threatened by economic hardship"

Sangjung Ryul, Professor at Myongji University Middle East Research Institute

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] "With Iran's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the Iran nuclear crisis is escalating again, and there are even talks of a 'Third World War,' but in reality, it will be difficult for Iran to possess nuclear weapons and engage in a full-scale war with the United States."

Jung Sang-ryul, President of the Korean Middle East Society (Professor at Myongji University Middle East Research Institute), summarized the future movements of the United States and Iran, whose tensions have risen since the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, in a phone interview with Asia Economy Newspaper on the 7th. The Korean Middle East Society is a leading domestic research organization on Middle East affairs and Middle Eastern studies.

Regarding the Iranian government's move to withdraw from the nuclear agreement the day before, Professor Jung said, "It is not simply a retaliatory measure for the killing of Qasem Soleimani, a powerful figure in the Iranian military," emphasizing, "It is also a strategic move aimed at new negotiations with the United States."

He explained, "The side that first withdrew from the nuclear agreement was the United States, and the U.S. had been continuously demanding Iran to establish a new nuclear agreement," adding, "By withdrawing from the nuclear agreement this time, Iran left room for returning to the agreement if the U.S. takes conciliatory measures such as easing sanctions, which indicates a willingness to negotiate." The Iran nuclear agreement was concluded in July 2015 during the Obama administration, but the U.S. withdrew in May 2018 after the Trump administration took office.

Professor Jung predicted that Iran's retaliation against the U.S. would be less severe than expected. He said, "Iran's oil export routes have been completely blocked under economic sanctions from the U.S. and the West, worsening the people's livelihood," and added, "It will be difficult for the Iranian government to provoke a full-scale war with the U.S." He also noted, "The protests currently happening in Iran are more serious than we thought."

Since November last year, violent protests have continued in Iran after the government raised gasoline prices by 50%, causing public outrage. According to Professor Jung, slogans calling for the restoration of the monarchy, unimaginable since the 1979 revolution, have recently been raised in Iran. Protesters openly chant slogans such as "The Shah of the former Pahlavi dynasty must return." Attacks on memorial halls depicting Khomeini's ring and Islamic religious schools have continued, and there are reports that more than 1,500 people have died during government crackdowns. This indicates that public sentiment has significantly deteriorated and that the Iranian regime is in crisis, according to Professor Jung.

Professor Jung also analyzed that the U.S. is unlikely to desire a full-scale confrontation with Iran. He said, "President Trump also wants to divert internal issues such as his impeachment crisis to external matters as a distraction, but he is not seeking a full-scale war with Iran," explaining, "In 2012, when the Iran nuclear crisis escalated worldwide, there were also scenarios of a Third World War, but it was eventually resolved with the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran."

However, he forecasted that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran would intensify proxy wars within Iraq. Professor Jung said, "The most difficult position right now is Iraq, caught between the U.S. and Iran," explaining, "Currently, the Shiite faction, which accounts for more than 60% of the population, controls Iraq, but the two countries have fought wars over a long period, and their ethnicities are completely different." He added, "The Shiite factions in Iraq are not close enough to side with Iran and wage war alongside the U.S." He predicted, "Ultimately, it is highly likely that proxy wars will unfold within Iraq between pro-Iranian military groups and pro-American military groups."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.