[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Unusual North... Anticipated Provocation Scenarios (Comprehensive)

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] As the possibility of North Korean provocations increases this year, attention is focusing on the methods of provocation. North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un mentioned "new strategic weapons" and "shocking actions" at last year's Workers' Party plenary meeting, indicating that the likelihood of provocations remains high.

Inside and outside the military, it is expected that if North Korea provokes, three scenarios are possible: ▲ low-intensity provocations conscious of international backlash ▲ high-intensity provocations such as the launch of strategic weapons, which are nuclear weapon delivery systems, and the 7th nuclear test.

It has been identified that North Korea is increasing the number of long-range artillery units deployed in the 1st, 2nd, and 5th Corps at the front lines in preparation for winter training. The 5th Corps, responsible for the central front line, recently conducted live-fire exercises with its artillery units. The military evaluates this as routine winter training, but provocations disguised as winter training are also possible. Along with the 5th Corps, the 2nd Corps responsible for the central front and the 1st Corps responsible for the western front have increased the number of long-range artillery in tunnels, deploying around 100 artillery pieces.

Provocations in the West Sea are also possible. It is known that North Korea has maintained coastal artillery and artillery units in the West Sea buffer zone even after the September 19 military agreement. The North Korean coastal artillery in this area numbers about 250 pieces, five times more than South Korea's, and about 400 artillery pieces, three times more than South Korea's, all aimed directly at the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. In November last year, North Korean forces fired coastal artillery from Changrindo into the West Sea, violating the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement. Following Kim Jong-un's instructions, since 2015, North Korea has militarized five uninhabited islands in the West Sea, including Mudo, Jangjaedo, Galdo, Arido, and Hambakdo.

High-intensity provocations may also be attempted. The strategic weapons mentioned by North Korea refer to delivery systems capable of carrying nuclear weapons, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). North Korea refers to SLBMs as "underwater strategic ballistic missiles."

North Korea may test-launch an upgraded version of the Pukguksong-3 SLBM, developed for multiple warheads and nuclear warheads, or reveal a submarine equipped with SLBMs. North Korean state media released photos on July 23 last year showing Kim Jong-un inspecting a new submarine over 3,000 tons at the Sinpo shipyard. This submarine is a strategic submarine capable of carrying 2 to 3 SLBMs, and continuous SLBM launches could be possible as early as the first half of this year.

North Korea is expected to continue developing ICBMs. It may test a new engine, an improved version of the "Baekdusan engine" used in the Hwasong-14 and 15 models, to publicly announce the development of multiple warhead ICBMs. Development to replace liquid fuel with solid fuel for ICBMs may also accelerate. Using solid fuel in ICBMs eliminates the need for fueling procedures, enabling immediate launch. Currently, the Hwasong-14 and 15 require about 30 minutes to fuel with liquid fuel, making them vulnerable to detection by South Korea-U.S. surveillance networks, a weakness that could be addressed.

Although the possibility is low, North Korea may also proceed with the 7th nuclear test. Some analysts predict that even without conducting nuclear tests, movements to manufacture nuclear weapons will continue. North Korea dismantled five nuclear facilities under the 1994 North Korea-U.S. Geneva Agreed Framework and three nuclear facilities following the 2008 Six-Party Talks. However, 11 facilities remain, including nuclear power plants, research reactors (Yeongbyeon in Pyongyang North Province), uranium enrichment plants (Pyeongsan and Bakcheon in North Hwanghae Province), and uranium mines (Pyeongsan in North Hwanghae and Sunchon in South Pyongan). This means that even without nuclear tests, the quantity of nuclear weapons can sufficiently increase.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Far East Institute at Gyeongnam National University said, "New strategic weapons will not be shown in a short time to leave room for dialogue with the U.S.," adding, "Provocations disguised as winter training or movements to increase nuclear materials will continue."

Meanwhile, U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft have repeatedly flown over South Korean airspace in the new year.

According to the civilian flight tracking site 'Aircraft Spot' on the 2nd, the U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft Rivet Joint (RC-135W) flew at 31,000 feet (9.4 km) over South Korea. The exact flight time was not disclosed, but it is estimated that the flight occurred on the afternoon of the 1st, Coordinated Universal Time. The RC-135W, the U.S. Air Force's main signals intelligence reconnaissance aircraft, is equipped with devices that detect signals emitted from ground remote telemetry equipment before missile launches and analyze warhead trajectories.

The enhanced U.S. military surveillance activities against North Korea, which seem to have intensified since last month, are expected to continue for the time being in the new year. Although North Korea did not carry out any provocations around Christmas, when it hinted at high-intensity provocations, there are forecasts that provocations could occur in the new year.

U.S. media reported that the U.S. Department of Defense is considering the possibility of North Korean provocations around January 8, Kim Jong-un's birthday, or mid-February, around the birthday of his father, Kim Jong-il.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.