Democratic Party's 15:1 Sweep of Major Local Governments? ... Neck-and-Neck Races with People Power Party in Three Yeongnam Regions

Close Contests in Daegu, Busan, and Gyeongnam
Stability of the Ruling Power Under Threat
Conservative Support Consolidating in Busan Buk-gap

With the 9th Nationwide Local Elections set for June 3, just 22 days away as of the article's publication date, shifts in voter support are being detected in key battleground areas across the Yeongnam region, including Daegu, Busan, and Gyeongnam. Although there are differences depending on polling methods and agencies, support for the People Power Party is gaining momentum.

Daegu Mayoral Race: Neck-and-Neck

According to a Daegu mayoral poll commissioned by JTBC and conducted by Metavoice (May 5-6, 804 Daegu residents aged 18 and over, wireless telephone interviews, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Kim Boo-kyum of the Democratic Party of Korea received 40% support, while Chu Kyung-ho of the People Power Party received 41%. The proportion of undecided voters stood at 18%. A month ago, the gap between the Democratic and People Power Party candidates was sometimes as wide as 20 percentage points, but it has now narrowed to an ultra-close race within the margin of error. As the official campaign period begins on May 21, there are expectations that the People Power Party's organizational strength in Daegu will become a significant factor. In response, the Democratic Party is planning to leverage Kim's experience as a former prime minister to drive a narrative of political change.

Busan Mayoral Race: Conservative Unification as a Variable

In a Busan mayoral poll commissioned by Busan MBC and conducted by Hangil Research (May 1-2, 1,013 Busan residents aged 18 and over, wireless automated response, ±3.1 percentage points margin of error at a 95% confidence level), Jeon Jae-soo received 46.9% support and Park Hyung-joon received 40.7%, indicating a tight race within the margin of error. In Busan, where conservative sentiment has traditionally been strong, there are signs that conservative support is consolidating. However, the intensification of infighting among conservatives in the Buk-gu Gap parliamentary by-election is acting as a variable. Some polls show Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo and independent Han Dong-hoon competing within the margin of error, with People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik trailing behind. There is continued discussion about the need for conservative candidates to unite. It is reported that about 70% of People Power Party supporters support candidate unification. On May 11, Park Hyung-joon, the People Power Party's mayoral candidate for Busan, also stated at a closed-door campaign committee meeting, "We must end division starting from Buk-gu Gap and take the first step toward unity."

Gyeongnam Governor Race: Urban Voter Sentiment as a Decisive Factor

According to a Gyeongnam gubernatorial poll commissioned by JTBC and conducted by Metavoice (May 5-6, 803 Gyeongnam residents aged 18 and over, wireless telephone interviews, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Kim Kyung-soo received 44% support and Park Wan-su received 38%, once again indicating a close race within the margin of error.

Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice, analyzed, "As the People Power Party has been framing issues such as the dismissal of charges against President Lee Jae-myung, the gap in support rates in the Yeongnam region has narrowed to a razor-thin margin." Gyeongnam was already expected to be one of the most fiercely contested areas even before the election campaign began in earnest. Both candidates have previously served as governor of Gyeongnam, which is a commonality they share. The outcome in Gyeongnam is likely to be shaped by whether the Democratic Party can expand its support base in densely populated urban areas such as Changwon, Gimhae, Yangsan, and Geoje.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.