[Current Affairs Show] Kim Sangwook, Cho Kuk, Han Donghoon...Fates Swayed by Consolidation

Park Wonseok: "Unification Between Kim Yongnam and Cho Kuk in Pyeongtaek-eul Is Unlikely"


Lee Taekyu: "Han Donghoon Needs to Launch a 'Conservative Innovation' Issue Campaign"


Park Wonseok: "Polling-Based Unification Could Result in Kim Sangwook's Defeat"

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show' (Mon-Fri, 4-5 p.m.)

■ Host: So Jongseop, Political Specialist ■ Producer: Lee Miri PD

■ Guests: Park Wonseok, former Justice Party lawmaker, Lee Taekyu, former People Power Party lawmaker (May 11)

※ When citing content from this article, please be sure to credit 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show.'

So Jongseop: With the June 3 local elections approaching, rather than an intense competition among metropolitan mayors, it seems the focus has shifted to the issue of unification in the by-elections. What is your take on the unification efforts in Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi Province, Buk-gap in Busan, and Ulsan? Let's start by looking at Pyeongtaek-eul. There are five candidates: Kim Yongnam from the Democratic Party of Korea, Yoo Euidong from the People Power Party, Cho Kuk from the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, Kim Jaeyeon from the Progressive Party, and Hwang Kyoahn from the Liberty and Innovation Party.

Park Wonseok: From a fundamental standpoint, it's a bit odd that candidates enter an election with their positions and then seek unification after declaring candidacy. Why bother running separately if that's the case? Unification is always on the table during elections, but fundamentally, it raises questions. Realistically, unification between Kim Yongnam and Cho Kuk, as well as between Yoo Euidong and Hwang Kyoahn, was mentioned from the start, but it doesn't seem easy at this point.

Kim Yongnam vs. Cho Kuk: Deep Emotional Rift Makes Unification Unlikely

Between Kim Yongnam and Cho Kuk, there is already a considerable emotional rift. Additionally, Cho Kuk's stance was that Kim Yongnam should not run due to reasons attributed to the Democratic Party. Even if Kim Yongnam did run, Cho Kuk had hoped for a candidate he could easily defeat or absorb, but the nomination process did not meet those expectations. To make matters worse, Kim Yongnam, who once targeted Cho Kuk as a political opponent, joined from the People Power Party. This has led to attacks on each other's identities and has fueled various controversies.

The difficulty in achieving unification in Pyeongtaek-eul is not only due to these emotional issues but also because there is no proof that failing to unify leads to defeat. Kim Yongnam and Cho Kuk are alternating in first and second place, followed by Yoo Euidong. Therefore, the urgency for unification is not that great. Even without unification, if the Democratic Party does not win in a multi-candidate race, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party is likely to win, and vice versa. This means they are not likely to yield the seat to the People Power Party, reducing the necessity and momentum for unification.

Yoo Euidong vs. Hwang Kyoahn: Unification Difficult Due to Differences on Election Legitimacy

Unification between Yoo Euidong and Hwang Kyoahn is also difficult because Hwang Kyoahn does not acknowledge martial law as an insurrection, opposes impeachment, and claims there was election fraud. These positions are very different from Yoo Euidong's and the People Power Party's official stance. For Yoo Euidong and the People Power Party, it is not easy to sit at the negotiation table with such a candidate. It seems they would prefer Hwang Kyoahn to withdraw on his own. Hwang Kyoahn is currently hospitalized after a hunger strike against constitutional amendment in Gwanghwamun. This could be seen as his exit strategy. Even if he withdraws, which would be an effective unification without officially labeling it as such, I don't see a possibility for formal negotiations at the table.

Lee Taekyu: Usually, unification occurs either through party-to-party agreements or by candidates themselves. If neither is the case, tactical voting can lead to de facto unification by concentrating votes on a particular candidate to avoid wasting votes. Also, if one side achieves unification, it can trigger a similar response from the opposing camp. Pyeongtaek-eul is a good example of this. Cho Kuk is practically campaigning as the Democratic Party candidate. That seems to be effective to some extent. However, the emotional gap between Kim Yongnam and Cho Kuk has deepened, making unification between the two very unlikely.

Kim Yongnam–Kim Jaeyeon: Possible Consideration of Unification

Rather, Kim Yongnam or the Democratic Party might consider unification with the Progressive Party. From the perspective of the Progressive Party establishing a foothold in Pyeongtaek-eul, they may not want to unify. But given the political interests and potential gains in the next general election, it could be considered. If the pro-government bloc moves toward unification, opposition bloc unification may automatically follow.

Hwang Kyoahn is currently hospitalized, but before that, he mentioned two things regarding unification: one is merger, and the other is the issue of election fraud. There is a concern about the backlash from unifying with a candidate who claims election fraud, potentially causing younger and more moderate voters to turn away. So, both polling data and the political situation indicate that unification is structurally difficult. Nevertheless, if one side starts moving concretely toward unification, the other camp is likely to respond in kind.

So Jongseop: Let's look at Buk-gap in Busan. This is a three-way race. The Democratic Party of Korea's Ha Jeongwoo, People Power Party's Park Minsik, and independent Han Donghoon are running. Among the June 3 by-election districts, this is considered the hottest contest. What are your thoughts on the potential unification between Han Donghoon and Park Minsik?

Lee Taekyu: Unification is the key factor in determining the outcome. If conservative opposition candidates unify, the chances of a conservative victory increase. If not, Ha Jeongwoo's chances of winning rise accordingly. So unification is the key variable. Currently, opinion polls show Park Minsik and Han Donghoon are neck and neck. Unification is not happening. Politically, Representative Jang Donghyuk and the party leadership are firmly against unification, essentially refusing to support Han Donghoon under any circumstances. At Park Minsik's campaign office opening yesterday, the senior party members in attendance were more interested in seeing Han Donghoon lose than supporting Park Minsik. Nevertheless, if the current trend of a split conservative vote continues, Ha Jeongwoo's chances of winning will increase.

Senior Members at Park Minsik's Campaign Office: "Don't Want Han Donghoon to Succeed"

This could lead to grassroots voters demanding unification. As the pressure mounts, especially for Busan mayoral candidate Park Hyungjun, he needs to consolidate the People Power Party's base while attracting the moderate conservative votes represented by Han Donghoon to stand a chance against Jeon Jaesu. For Park Hyungjun, unification in Buk-gap, including the moderate conservatives, could be a pathway to expand the conservative base, and he strongly desires this. Reportedly, nine Busan lawmakers attended Park Minsik's campaign office opening.Conversely, eight did not attend. Those who want unification and integration are among those present. If neither Park Minsik nor Han Donghoon gains a clear advantage and the momentum shifts in Ha Jeongwoo's favor, demands for candidate unification could intensify.

Park Wonseok: I also think it's not easy. The two candidates have different support bases. Park Minsik is supported by traditional, hardline conservatives, while Han Donghoon enjoys support from rational conservatives and moderates. There is strong mutual hostility among their supporters. Even if they unify, the sum of their support in polls is less than the arithmetic total, meaning synergy is lacking. Of course, the actual result may differ if unification happens, but current polling trends show that support does not fully converge.

This casts doubt on the effectiveness of unification, and the level of animosity on both sides is extremely high. Many senior members of the People Power Party attended Park Minsik's campaign office opening, and it felt more like a rally against Han Donghoon's victory.If Han Donghoon were to win through unification and return to the People Power Party, it would be a disaster for Representative Jang Donghyuk and the current leadership. They will try everything to prevent that. For Park Minsik, another general election is coming in two years. If he attempts unification and loses, he will have no political position left.

Park Minsik vs. Han Donghoon: High Hostility and Different Support Bases

Polls show them almost tied. We will need to observe for about another week, but there is speculation about a possible surge toward Han Donghoon. However, polling shows strong opposition to Han Donghoon among People Power Party supporters, which is a challenge for him. Perhaps that's why he brought in former lawmaker Jeong Hyeonggeun as his campaign chair, but this has also sparked new controversies. From a third-party perspective, none of the candidates are strongly fighting on election issues.There is a lack of issue-based campaigning suitable for each candidate.

Lee Taekyu: From Han Donghoon's perspective, without a differentiated campaign, the candidate supported by the aligned camp is likely to win. Voters need to see the future of conservatism through Han Donghoon's victory.The future of conservatism means, at minimum, a robust opposition capable of effectively checking Lee Jae-myung's government, a powerful conservative bloc, and a conservative bloc capable of regaining power. Appointing Jeong Hyeonggeun as campaign chair is not the solution. Rather than engaging in debates, candidates should present a positive vision that rises above the fray, which would make the election more interesting. However, if things remain as they are,a low-energy campaign will likely continue, resulting in an advantage for the camp-aligned candidate.

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Han Donghoon Needs Distinctive 'Conservative Innovation' and 'Conservative Rebuilding' Issue Campaign

Park Wonseok: There is no discussion about what strategies or directions will be used to rebuild conservatism and challenge for power. The only narrative is that "my victory equals conservative rebuilding" or "my victory is the path for conservatives to regain power," and this is equated with conservative innovation. As a result, Ha Jeongwoo is structurally favored.In terms of personal appeal, Han Donghoon is ahead, but another critical factor is the need for a strong political wind, which seems to be absent at the moment.That wind may never come. Han Donghoon's vision is lacking.The idea that "my win equals conservative rebuilding" is not convincing to today's voters, in my opinion. If things continue this way, it will be an uneventful defeat. Yet Han Donghoon's camp does not seem to realize this.

So Jongseop: Let's turn to Ulsan. The Democratic Party of Korea's Kim Sangwook, People Power Party's Kim Dugyeom, Progressive Party's Kim Jonghoon, and independent Park Maengwoo are running—a four-way race. Isn't Ulsan a prime example of a district where the outcome could dramatically shift depending on whether unification happens?

Lee Taekyu: There are likely camps where unification discussions are already progressing. The camp that achieves unification will win. Polls show that without unification, Kim Sangwook cannot win.In fact, there are even results showing him trailing Kim Dugyeom.Unification between the conservative candidates Kim Dugyeom and Park Maengwoo is highly likely.If that happens, Kim Sangwook and Kim Jonghoon will also have no choice but to unify. Ultimately, I expect both camps to move toward single candidates. I believe both sides will smoothly proceed with unification.

Ulsan Likely to See Unification on Both Sides. Kim Sangwook May Lose to Progressive Party's Kim Jonghoon

Park Wonseok: It's a bit complicated because Kim Jonghoon is a highly competitive candidate.He has served as a lawmaker and as a district mayor,and has a strong base in the Buk-gu and Dong-gu districts. The Democratic Party needs to negotiate and make compromises with the Progressive Party, but currently, Kim Sangwook is being left to handle things alone. Moreover, the Ulsan branch of the Democratic Party is not fond of the "outsider" Kim Sangwook. There are even rumors that the party has given up on the election.The longer-standing members of the Democratic Party in difficult regions tend to have strong pride, and suddenly Kim Sangwook has taken everything. Instead of embracing, integrating, and respecting these members, the party hasn't managed this process well. Kim Sangwook is now very isolated—both from the party and in the local community. It's a tough situation.In the final stages, there may be a last-minute push to unify candidates through polling.No one knows who will win. The Democratic Party could lose.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.