[Walking Through Seoul] As Seoul Faces Population Decline, the City Dreams of Spatial Abundance

Urbanization Rate Reaches 81% in Korea, Making Decline Inevitable
Expanding Living Space and Creating Urban Parks
Turning Population Decline into an Opportunity for Greater Spatial Abundance

The new year of 2026 has arrived. The 2020s began with the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, but that is already a story from six years ago. If we divide a century, or 100 years, into early, middle, and late periods as if they were months, the early part of the 21st century now has just over seven years left. The 2030s-meaning the middle of the 21st century-are fast approaching. While time in the 21st century is moving forward, discussions about the world’s major cities seem to remain stuck in the frameworks of the late 20th century.

The first topic that comes to mind in discussions about major global cities is demographic change. Developed countries have already maintained their urban populations by accepting immigrants as a solution to declining birth rates since the late 20th century. In New York and London, immigrants make up 35% of the total population, and in Toronto and Miami, the figure exceeds 45%. To maintain the population without immigrants, a birth rate of 2.1 is required, but almost all developed countries have long since fallen below that threshold. Many countries, like South Korea with a rate of 0.75, have dropped below 1.0.

In the latter half of the 20th century, many people in developing countries moved from rural areas to cities, causing urban populations to grow rapidly. Seoul was one such city, but during the same period, cities like Mexico City and S?o Paulo also expanded in size. In the early 21st century, similar phenomena were observed in many Chinese cities, and according to recent statistics, Jakarta in India has overtaken Tokyo to become the largest metropolitan area in the world. This is also the result of the same trend.

Developed countries that have accepted immigrants have also experienced rapid urban population growth due to urbanization. Over time, urbanization slowed, and as birth rates fell, immigration was used to fill the gap. When the urbanization rate exceeds about 70%, population decline becomes inevitable unless high birth rates are maintained or immigrants are accepted.

The view of 'Yeollin Songhyeon Green Plaza' located in Jongno-gu, Seoul.

This is exactly the situation faced by many cities in South Korea, including Seoul. South Korea’s urbanization rate is 81%. Although the number of immigrants has increased compared to the past, it is still a low 5%, compared to the developed world’s average of 15% of the total population. The reason Seoul has so far avoided a sharp population decline is that it remains the core city of South Korea and continues to attract young people who dream of the future.

The situation in major cities of developed countries has changed rapidly in the 2020s. First, political opposition to immigration is growing. While this trend was already visible in the late 2010s, it has become even stronger in the 2020s. Some developed countries have introduced immigration restriction policies as of 2025. As a result, there is no longer an expectation that immigrants will continue to flow in. In the future, immigration is expected to shift toward attracting professionals such as highly educated researchers, and the numbers are projected to decrease significantly.

Second, the development and adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and robots mean that intelligent machines will take over the labor that humans have performed since the Industrial Revolution. In this case, the economic slowdown caused by population decline may not be as severe, and focusing immigration on professionals may not pose a problem. A relevant example is the increased adoption of kiosks by restaurants and cafes during the COVID-19 pandemic, as it became difficult to hire part-time workers.

In places where population growth continues due to urbanization, issues with transportation and the environment will arise as the population keeps increasing. On the other hand, major cities in developed countries will face a new phase as population decline deepens and labor market changes accelerate. What about Seoul? As a city that leads change, Seoul could offer advice to other cities facing population decline, turning crisis into opportunity.

It is necessary to look at the population decline projections for Seoul. Current estimates suggest that by 2050, the midpoint of the 21st century, South Korea’s population will be about 47 million. If Seoul continues to account for 18.5% of the country’s population as it does now, its population will decrease by nearly 1 million to around 8.69 million. By 2067, when the latter part of the 21st century begins, the national population is expected to drop to 39 million, and if Seoul still makes up 18.5%, its population will fall to 7.21 million. Although projections for the year 2100, the start of the 22nd century, have a wide margin of error, the population is expected to drop to less than half of today’s level. If the total population becomes 25 million, Seoul’s population would be 4.25 million. While Seoul’s share could increase as the national population declines, the overall acceleration of population decline is certain.

Considering the spread of AI and knowledge industries, these shocking numbers do not necessarily spell crisis. The key is ‘spatial abundance.’ When Lee Hocheol’s famous novel “Seoul Is Full” was published in 1966, Seoul’s population was 3.8 million. Compared to the infrastructure at the time, this was far too many, and there was no spatial abundance. Sixty years later, Seoul still lacks spatial abundance, but the standard of living and infrastructure have improved beyond comparison. In an era of population decline, spatial abundance will increase in two ways while maintaining this infrastructure.

First, housing. Currently, homes in Seoul are smaller than those in other major cities around the world, especially rental units like studio apartments. As the population decreases, housing demand will also fall, and homes will naturally become larger to appeal to buyers. As home prices drop, a time will come when people can live in larger homes for less money, and quality of life will improve accordingly.

Second, parks. Although Seoul is mountainous, about 30% of its area is green space. However, parks within urban areas make up only 3.7% of the total area, which is very low. If palaces are included, the figure rises to 8.5%, similar to Tokyo’s 7.5%. In New York and London, about 20% of the area is parkland. If Seoul gains more spatial abundance, more parks can be created within the main urban areas. Connecting these with the green spaces of the mountains, Seoul could become a greener city than anywhere else.

This outlook is not an idealistic optimism about population decline. Society is always changing, and even gloomy forecasts can inspire new dreams for the future when viewed from a different perspective. Every situation has both positive and negative aspects, like yin and yang. Why not turn the crisis of population decline into an opportunity to make Seoul an even better city?

Robert Fouser, former professor at Seoul National University

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.